Major League Soccer · Review

Major League Soccer matchweek 34 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Major League Soccer result from matchweek 34 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 34 (7–8 November 2026), is complete: 15 matches, 45 goals (3.00 a game), seven home wins, one draw and seven away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in eight of the 15 and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was Sporting Kansas City's win in San Diego v Sporting Kansas City (0–1), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was Vancouver Whitecaps's win in CF Montreal v Vancouver Whitecaps (0–2), at 63%.

After the round, Nashville SC lead on 77 points, 13 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 60. The bottom three are DC United (33), CF Montreal (26), Sporting Kansas City (26).

Match by match

CF Montreal 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had CF Montreal 16%, the draw 21% and Vancouver Whitecaps 63%, so Vancouver Whitecaps winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 0-2, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.96–1.86: Vancouver Whitecaps created the better chances. The headline call, Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 63%, came in.

Chicago Fire 3–4 Columbus CrewSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had Chicago Fire 45%, the draw 24% and Columbus Crew 31%, with Chicago Fire favoured; it put Columbus Crew winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.97–1.54: Chicago Fire created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in.

DC United 0–1 New York City FCSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had DC United 30%, the draw 27% and New York City FC 43%, so New York City FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.87–1.12: an even contest on chances. The headline call, New York City FC to win at 43%, came in. Pick published: DC United -0.5 at 2.90 — lost.

FC Cincinnati 0–2 Nashville SCSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Cincinnati 22%, the draw 21% and Nashville SC 57%, so Nashville SC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.20–1.58: Nashville SC created the better chances. The headline call, Nashville SC to win at 57%, came in.

Inter Miami 3–3 CharlotteSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had Inter Miami 53%, the draw 20% and Charlotte 27%, with Inter Miami favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.14–1.80: Inter Miami created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 58%, came in.

New York Red Bulls 3–0 Atlanta United FCSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had New York Red Bulls 43%, the draw 26% and Atlanta United FC 30%, so New York Red Bulls winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.78–0.63: New York Red Bulls created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in.

Orlando City SC 1–0 New England RevolutionSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had Orlando City SC 39%, the draw 21% and New England Revolution 40%, with New England Revolution favoured; it put Orlando City SC winning at 39%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.20–0.91: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Orlando City SC -0.75 at 2.08 — half won.

Philadelphia Union 4–1 Toronto FCSat 7 Nov, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had Philadelphia Union 59%, the draw 20% and Toronto FC 21%, so Philadelphia Union winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 3.82–0.63: Philadelphia Union created the better chances. The headline call, Philadelphia Union to win at 59%, came in.

Austin 0–2 Portland TimbersSun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Austin 39%, the draw 23% and Portland Timbers 38%, with Austin favoured; it put Portland Timbers winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.68–0.42: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 47%, did not come in.

FC Dallas 3–1 Colorado RapidsSun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Dallas 49%, the draw 25% and Colorado Rapids 26%, so FC Dallas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.72–0.73: FC Dallas created the better chances. The headline call, FC Dallas to win at 49%, came in. Pick published: Colorado Rapids +0.25 at 2.73 — lost.

Houston Dynamo 0–1 St. Louis CitySun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Houston Dynamo 38%, the draw 26% and St. Louis City 36%, with Houston Dynamo favoured; it put St. Louis City winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.35–0.89: Houston Dynamo created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, did not come in.

Minnesota United FC 3–1 San Jose EarthquakesSun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Minnesota United FC 42%, the draw 23% and San Jose Earthquakes 35%, so Minnesota United FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.15–1.23: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, came in.

Real Salt Lake 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxySun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Real Salt Lake 49%, the draw 23% and Los Angeles Galaxy 27%, so Real Salt Lake winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.98–0.73: Real Salt Lake created the better chances. The headline call, Real Salt Lake to win at 49%, came in.

San Diego 0–1 Sporting Kansas CitySun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had San Diego 65%, the draw 17% and Sporting Kansas City 18%, with San Diego favoured; it put Sporting Kansas City winning at 18%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 0.85–1.98: Sporting Kansas City created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 64%, did not come in. Pick published: San Diego -0.5 at 1.58 — lost.

Seattle Sounders 2–1 Los Angeles FCSun 8 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Seattle Sounders 32%, the draw 28% and Los Angeles FC 39%, with Los Angeles FC favoured; it put Seattle Sounders winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.57–1.90: Los Angeles FC created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Los Angeles FC to win at 39%, did not come in. Pick published: Los Angeles FC at 3.35 — lost.

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.25 goals a game over 510 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 25% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.