San Diego v Sporting Kansas City

25th0–130th

00:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
San Diego		Sporting Kansas City
17	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	7
8	Corners	4
11	Fouls	12
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
672	Passes	332
67%	Possession %	33%
0.85	xG	1.98

Over 1.5: 94%
Over 2.5: 81%
Over 3.5: 64%
Both score: 74%

Model pick: San Diego 65%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.86 – 1.51

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

San Diego -0.5

1.58Bet365 · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back San Diego -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Bet365 — San Diego must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 65% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: San Diego 2.86, Sporting Kansas City 1.51.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	73.8%	1.35	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	26.2%	3.81	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-4.6
Match result	San Diego	65.2%	1.53	1.61 Dafabet	62.1%	+3.1
Match result	Draw	16.9%	5.92	5.20 Betano	19.2%	-2.3
Match result	Sporting Kansas City	17.9%	5.60	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	93.5%	1.07	1.08 Betano	92.6%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	6.5%	15.42	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	81.2%	1.23	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	+3.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	18.8%	5.32	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-5.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	63.6%	1.57	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	36.4%	2.75	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-8.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

San Diego favoured against Sporting Kansas City

Our model makes San Diego 65% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 17% and Sporting Kansas City at 18%. The goal projection is 2.86 for San Diego against 1.51 for Sporting Kansas City — a commanding edge to San Diego on expected output. A combined 4.38 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. San Diego is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%; 1-1 6%; 3-2 6%

This season

Season records for San Diego and Sporting Kansas City
San Diego		Sporting Kansas City
34	Played	34
9-11-14	W-D-L	7-5-22
1.12	Pts / game	0.76
1.68	Goals for / game	1.18
1.85	Goals against / game	2.38
68%	Over 2.5	76%
59%	BTTS	65%
24%	Clean sheets	6%
18%	Failed to score	29%
6-5-6	Home record	3-5-9
3-6-8	Away record	4-0-13
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. San Diego · Sporting Kansas City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	12.6
4.6	Shots on target	4.7
4.7	Corners	4.3
1.56	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	12.6
58	Possession %	46
1.89	xG	1.24
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.7	Shots	15.6
7.2	Shots on target	6.2
4.2	Corners	6.7
2.01	Cards	2.33
15.0	Fouls	10.4
42	Possession %	54
1.71	xG	1.86
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
San Diego	Metric	Sporting Kansas City
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
3.00	Goals conceded	3.00
2.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.17
	Big chances
5.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
15.80 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.60
61.8 (better)	Possession %	46.6
664 (better)	Passes	435
	Tackles
11.60 (better)	Fouls	13.80
2.20	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

San Diego wins: 2
Draws: 0
Sporting Kansas City wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

San Diego v Sporting Kansas City0–12026-11-08
Sporting Kansas City v San Diego0–12026-03-08
Sporting Kansas City v San Diego0–22025-08-10

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5