Philadelphia Union v 
Toronto FC
Match statistics
| Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 270 | Passes | 361 |
| 43% | Possession % | 57% |
| 3.82 | xG | 0.63 |
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 72%
- Over 3.5
- 52%
- Both score
- 68%
- Model pick
- Philadelphia Union 59%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.38 – 1.37
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Philadelphia Union | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.48 Dafabet | 67.6% | -8.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.9% | 5.03 | 5.30 Betano | 18.9% | +1.0 |
| Match result | Toronto FC | 20.8% | 4.81 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +6.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | 1.14 Betano | 87.7% | +1.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 10.8% | 9.27 | 6.50 Bet365 | 15.4% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | -6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 31.9% | 3.14 | 2.50 BetVictor | 40.0% | -8.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Philadelphia Union favoured against Toronto FC
Our model makes Philadelphia Union 59% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 20% and Toronto FC at 21%. The goal projection is 2.38 for Philadelphia Union against 1.37 for Toronto FC — a commanding edge to Philadelphia Union on expected output. A combined 3.75 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 1-1 8%
- 3-1 7%
- 2-0 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Philadelphia Union | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 14-8-12 | W-D-L | 9-12-13 |
| 1.47 | Pts / game | 1.15 |
| 1.94 | Goals for / game | 1.53 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.97 |
| 68% | Over 2.5 | 71% |
| 68% | BTTS | 79% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 15% |
| 8-5-4 | Home record | 6-9-2 |
| 6-3-8 | Away record | 3-3-11 |
| W1 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Philadelphia Union · Toronto FC
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.4 | Shots | 11.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 6.9 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 1.75 | Cards | 1.75 |
| 15.3 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 45 | Possession % | 48 |
| 2.19 | xG | 1.60 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 9.6 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 3.1 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.13 | Cards | 1.38 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 13.9 |
| 55 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.17 | xG | 2.42 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Philadelphia Union | Metric | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.13 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.78 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.60 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 17.00 (better) | Total shots | 13.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 4.80 |
| 46.6 | Possession % | 47.0 (better) |
| 392 (better) | Passes | 366 |
| Tackles | ||
| 16.80 | Fouls | 11.00 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Philadelphia Union wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Toronto FC wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC4–12026-11-07
- Toronto FC v Philadelphia Union3–32026-04-22
- Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC1–12025-08-09
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | +46 | 77 | Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 | Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | +21 | 60 | Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | +11 | 58 | FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | +8 | 58 | New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | +10 | 55 | Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Charlotte | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +15 | 54 | Charlotte won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +11 | 54 | St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | +6 | 52 | San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 51 | Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +14 | 50 | Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +12 | 47 | Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | +7 | 47 | Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | +1 | 46 | Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 46 | Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | FC Cincinnati | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 46 | FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | -15 | 46 | Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | +1 | 45 | Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | -2 | 44 | Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | -7 | 44 | Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Colorado Rapids | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -3 | 43 | Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | +4 | 42 | New York City FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 23 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 42 | New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Toronto FC | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | -15 | 39 | Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 25 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -6 | 38 | San Diego won 1 of the last 5 |
| 26 | Austin | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | -23 | 34 | Austin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 27 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | -17 | 33 | Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 28 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | -22 | 33 | DC United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -32 | 26 | CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5 |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | -41 | 26 | Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5 |