Major League Soccer · Review

Major League Soccer matchweek 32 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Major League Soccer result from matchweek 32 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 29 Oct 2026, updated 30 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 32 (28–29 October 2026), is complete: 14 matches, 47 goals (3.36 a game), six home wins, four draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in eleven of the 14 and both teams scored in ten.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati (2–2), which it had at 13%; the one it rated most likely was Vancouver Whitecaps's win in Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego (4–1), at 64%.

After the round, Nashville SC lead on 71 points, 13 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with New England Revolution third on 58. The bottom three are Atlanta United FC (30), CF Montreal (25), Sporting Kansas City (22).

Match by match

Charlotte 4–0 CF MontrealWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Before kick-off the model had Charlotte 62%, the draw 21% and CF Montreal 17%, so Charlotte winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.11–0.45: Charlotte created the better chances. The headline call, Charlotte to win at 62%, came in. Pick published: Charlotte -0.5 at 1.55 (free pick) — won.

Inter Miami 2–2 FC CincinnatiWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Before kick-off the model had Inter Miami 72%, the draw 13% and FC Cincinnati 15%, with Inter Miami favoured; it put the draw at 13%. The likeliest score had been 3-1. Expected goals were 0.91–0.77: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 78%, came in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 1.65 — won.

New England Revolution 3–2 New York Red BullsWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Before kick-off the model had New England Revolution 55%, the draw 24% and New York Red Bulls 22%, so New England Revolution winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.96–2.47: New York Red Bulls created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, New England Revolution to win at 55%, came in. Picks published: Under 2.5 at 3.00 — lost; New York Red Bulls +0.25 at 2.83 — lost.

New York City FC 2–1 Atlanta United FCWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Before kick-off the model had New York City FC 50%, the draw 26% and Atlanta United FC 23%, so New York City FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.20–2.22: Atlanta United FC created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, New York City FC to win at 50%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.40 — lost.

Toronto FC 2–1 DC UnitedWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Before kick-off the model had Toronto FC 51%, the draw 23% and DC United 26%, so Toronto FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.56–1.30: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Toronto FC to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: DC United +0.25 at 2.77 — lost.

Austin 1–2 Real Salt LakeThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Austin 40%, the draw 25% and Real Salt Lake 35%, with Austin favoured; it put Real Salt Lake winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.92–2.21: Real Salt Lake created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in. Pick published: Real Salt Lake +0.25 at 2.13 — won.

Chicago Fire 2–2 Orlando City SCThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Chicago Fire 53%, the draw 20% and Orlando City SC 27%, with Chicago Fire favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.98–0.79: Chicago Fire created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 61%, came in. Pick published: Chicago Fire -0.5 at 1.70 — lost.

FC Dallas 0–2 Columbus CrewThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Dallas 47%, the draw 24% and Columbus Crew 29%, with FC Dallas favoured; it put Columbus Crew winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.09–1.43: Columbus Crew created the better chances. The headline call, FC Dallas to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: FC Dallas -0.5 at 1.95 — lost.

Minnesota United FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Minnesota United FC 62%, the draw 18% and Sporting Kansas City 20%, so Minnesota United FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.86–0.78: Minnesota United FC created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 61%, came in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 1.93 — won.

Nashville SC 0–0 Philadelphia UnionThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Nashville SC 55%, the draw 22% and Philadelphia Union 23%, with Nashville SC favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.83–1.02: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Nashville SC to win at 55%, did not come in. Pick published: Philadelphia Union +0.25 at 3.00 — half won.

St. Louis City 2–3 Portland TimbersThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had St. Louis City 62%, the draw 19% and Portland Timbers 19%, with St. Louis City favoured; it put Portland Timbers winning at 19%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.98–1.20: St. Louis City created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, St. Louis City to win at 62%, did not come in. Pick published: St. Louis City at 1.85 — lost.

San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 Colorado RapidsThu 29 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had San Jose Earthquakes 47%, the draw 26% and Colorado Rapids 28%, with San Jose Earthquakes favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.39–0.82: San Jose Earthquakes created the better chances. The headline call, San Jose Earthquakes to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 at 1.82 — half lost.

Seattle Sounders 0–1 Houston DynamoThu 29 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Seattle Sounders 40%, the draw 29% and Houston Dynamo 31%, with Seattle Sounders favoured; it put Houston Dynamo winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.92–0.36: Seattle Sounders created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, came in. Picks published: Seattle Sounders -0.75 at 2.04 (free pick) — lost; Under 2.5 at 2.22 — won.

Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1 San DiegoThu 29 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Vancouver Whitecaps 64%, the draw 19% and San Diego 17%, so Vancouver Whitecaps winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.88–2.54: Vancouver Whitecaps created the better chances. The headline call, Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 64%, came in. Pick published: Vancouver Whitecaps -0.5 at 1.45 — won.

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.25 goals a game over 480 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 45% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.