Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati

3rd2–216th

23:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Inter Miami		FC Cincinnati
14	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	3
9	Fouls	10
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	3
612	Passes	399
61%	Possession %	39%
0.91	xG	0.77

Over 1.5: 97%
Over 2.5: 90%
Over 3.5: 78%
Both score: 81%

Model pick: Inter Miami 72%
Likely score: 3-1 6%
Expected goals: 3.62 – 1.76

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

1.65Betano · fair 1.51 · qualifies at 1.57+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 1.65 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 78% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.51. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 9.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Inter Miami 3.62, FC Cincinnati 1.76.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	2.8%	35.74	10.00 Bet365	10.0%	-7.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	90.4%	1.11	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+9.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	9.6%	10.39	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-13.5
Match result	Inter Miami	71.9%	1.39	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+8.2
Match result	Draw	13.4%	7.46	5.40 Betano	18.5%	-5.1
Match result	FC Cincinnati	14.7%	6.81	5.60 Dafabet	17.9%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	97.2%	1.03	1.07 Betano	93.5%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	78.4%	1.28	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+15.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	21.6%	4.63	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-19.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	80.7%	1.24	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	19.3%	5.18	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-9.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter Miami favoured against FC Cincinnati

Our model makes Inter Miami 72% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 13% and FC Cincinnati at 15%. The goal projection is 3.62 for Inter Miami against 1.76 for FC Cincinnati — a commanding edge to Inter Miami on expected output. A combined 5.38 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 90% and both teams to score at 81%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 6%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Inter Miami is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 3-1 6%; 4-1 6%; 3-2 6%; 2-1 5%; 4-2 5%

This season

Season records for Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami		FC Cincinnati
34	Played	34
16-12-6	W-D-L	12-10-12
1.76	Pts / game	1.35
2.35	Goals for / game	1.97
1.74	Goals against / game	2.21
76%	Over 2.5	68%
76%	BTTS	71%
18%	Clean sheets	12%
9%	Failed to score	18%
6-9-2	Home record	9-3-5
10-3-4	Away record	3-7-7
D1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Inter Miami · FC Cincinnati

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	14.9
5.3	Shots on target	4.9
3.0	Corners	5.0
2.24	Cards	2.11
13.7	Fouls	10.4
57	Possession %	49
1.74	xG	1.51
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	12.6
4.0	Shots on target	4.3
4.0	Corners	5.7
1.33	Cards	1.67
9.4	Fouls	9.2
43	Possession %	51
1.73	xG	1.06
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Inter Miami	Metric	FC Cincinnati
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.66	Expected goals (xG)	2.21 (better)
	Big chances
6.20	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
12.20	Total shots	20.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	6.20 (better)
56.0 (better)	Possession %	53.8
582 (better)	Passes	531
	Tackles
15.80	Fouls	11.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Inter Miami wins: 2
Draws: 2
FC Cincinnati wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.80
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 40%

Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati2–22026-10-28
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Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati0–02025-07-26
FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami3–02025-07-16

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5