San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids

9th2–221st

02:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
San Jose Earthquakes		Colorado Rapids
19	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	3
11	Corners	5
20	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	5
1	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	5
338	Passes	427
45%	Possession %	55%
2.39	xG	0.82

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: San Jose Earthquakes 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.20

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

San Jose Earthquakes -0.25

1.82BetVictor · fair 1.74 · qualifies at 1.80+ · 1.32u

Why this price?

Back San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.82 with BetVictor — San Jose Earthquakes must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.74. The offered 1.82 implies only 55%, so the price is 4.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.32 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.62, Colorado Rapids 1.20.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	San Jose Earthquakes	46.7%	2.14	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+4.7
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.89	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-1.0
Match result	Colorado Rapids	27.6%	3.63	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.8%	1.28	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.2%	4.51	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+2.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.5%	1.87	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-6.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.5%	2.15	2.40 Bet365	41.7%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.3%	3.20	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.7%	1.46	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.6%	1.77	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.4%	2.30	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

San Jose Earthquakes favoured against Colorado Rapids

Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes 47% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 26% and Colorado Rapids at 28%. The goal projection is 1.62 for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.20 for Colorado Rapids — a clear edge to San Jose Earthquakes on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes		Colorado Rapids
34	Played	34
14-10-10	W-D-L	12-7-15
1.53	Pts / game	1.26
1.68	Goals for / game	1.38
1.50	Goals against / game	1.47
59%	Over 2.5	50%
68%	BTTS	50%
21%	Clean sheets	32%
15%	Failed to score	24%
7-5-5	Home record	10-3-4
7-5-5	Away record	2-4-11
L1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. San Jose Earthquakes · Colorado Rapids

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	11.6
4.0	Shots on target	4.4
4.5	Corners	5.4
2.00	Cards	3.00
12.5	Fouls	14.5
46	Possession %	57
1.20	xG	1.31
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	14.4
6.0	Shots on target	5.3
5.5	Corners	4.9
1.88	Cards	1.13
14.1	Fouls	13.5
54	Possession %	43
1.35	xG	1.69
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
San Jose Earthquakes	Metric	Colorado Rapids
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
0.92	Expected goals (xG)	1.46 (better)
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
14.80 (better)	Total shots	12.80
	Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)	Corners	5.40
49.6	Possession %	57.8 (better)
451	Passes	475 (better)
	Tackles
9.60 (better)	Fouls	16.00
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.20

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

San Jose Earthquakes wins: 0
Draws: 2
Colorado Rapids wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids2–22026-10-29
Colorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes1–12026-10-11

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5