Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC

6th2–217th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Chicago Fire		Orlando City SC
23	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	3
14	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	5
507	Passes	376
58%	Possession %	42%
2.98	xG	0.79

Over 1.5: 93%
Over 2.5: 79%
Over 3.5: 61%
Both score: 76%

Model pick: Chicago Fire 53%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.47 – 1.75

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Chicago Fire -0.5

1.70Betano · fair 1.58 · qualifies at 1.63+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Chicago Fire -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Betano — Chicago Fire must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 70%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.58. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 7.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Chicago Fire 2.47, Orlando City SC 1.75.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Chicago Fire	53.5%	1.87	1.60 William Hill	62.5%	-9.0
Match result	Draw	19.7%	5.08	5.10 Betano	19.6%	+0.1
Match result	Orlando City SC	26.8%	3.73	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	92.6%	1.08	1.08 Betano	92.6%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	7.4%	13.53	11.00 Bet365	9.1%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	79.2%	1.26	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	20.8%	4.80	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	60.7%	1.65	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	39.3%	2.55	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	75.9%	1.32	1.39 Betano	71.9%	+3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	24.1%	4.15	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Chicago Fire favoured against Orlando City SC

Our model makes Chicago Fire 53% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 20% and Orlando City SC at 27%. The goal projection is 2.47 for Chicago Fire against 1.75 for Orlando City SC — a substantial edge to Chicago Fire on expected output. A combined 4.21 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 79% and both teams to score at 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-1 7%; 3-1 6%; 3-2 6%

This season

Season records for Chicago Fire and Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire		Orlando City SC
34	Played	34
16-7-11	W-D-L	13-7-14
1.62	Pts / game	1.35
1.88	Goals for / game	1.85
1.59	Goals against / game	2.29
76%	Over 2.5	76%
74%	BTTS	68%
21%	Clean sheets	15%
9%	Failed to score	18%
9-2-6	Home record	10-3-4
7-5-5	Away record	3-4-10
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Chicago Fire · Orlando City SC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	13.5
5.6	Shots on target	5.3
5.4	Corners	3.8
2.67	Cards	2.38
13.9	Fouls	11.8
53	Possession %	50
1.89	xG	1.50
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.4	Shots	17.9
4.4	Shots on target	6.9
4.3	Corners	7.5
2.33	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	14.3
47	Possession %	50
1.23	xG	2.37
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Chicago Fire	Metric	Orlando City SC
1.40	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.59	Expected goals (xG)	1.96 (better)
	Big chances
5.80 (better)	Shots on target	5.20
16.20 (better)	Total shots	13.60
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.60
53.0	Possession %	56.8 (better)
466	Passes	510 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	10.80 (better)
2.20	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.40	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Chicago Fire wins: 2
Draws: 1
Orlando City SC wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC2–22026-10-29
Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire1–22026-08-19
Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC3–12025-10-23

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5