Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union

1st0–011th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nashville SC		Philadelphia Union
9	Shots	6
1	Shots on target	2
2	Corners	8
8	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	0
495	Passes	279
63%	Possession %	37%
0.83	xG	1.02

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Nashville SC 55%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.03 – 1.26

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Philadelphia Union +0.25

3.00BetVictor · fair 2.75 · qualifies at 2.83+ · 1.14u

Why this price?

Back Philadelphia Union +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with BetVictor — Philadelphia Union starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.75. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Nashville SC 2.03, Philadelphia Union 1.26.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Nashville SC	54.7%	1.83	1.86 Dafabet	53.8%	+0.9
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.48	4.00 Betano	25.0%	-2.7
Match result	Philadelphia Union	23.0%	4.35	4.45 Betano	22.5%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.6%	1.18	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.4%	6.49	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.0%	1.56	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+2.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.0%	2.78	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.9%	2.39	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.1%	1.72	1.67 Betfair	59.9%	-1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.9%	1.59	1.60 Betfair	62.5%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.1%	2.69	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	+0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Nashville SC favoured against Philadelphia Union

Our model makes Nashville SC 55% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 22% and Philadelphia Union at 23%. The goal projection is 2.03 for Nashville SC against 1.26 for Philadelphia Union — a substantial edge to Nashville SC on expected output. A combined 3.30 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC		Philadelphia Union
34	Played	34
23-8-3	W-D-L	14-8-12
2.26	Pts / game	1.47
2.09	Goals for / game	1.94
0.74	Goals against / game	1.53
56%	Over 2.5	68%
44%	BTTS	68%
50%	Clean sheets	21%
18%	Failed to score	21%
15-2-0	Home record	8-5-4
8-6-3	Away record	6-3-8
W2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nashville SC · Philadelphia Union

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	17.4
6.8	Shots on target	6.5
5.4	Corners	6.9
1.13	Cards	1.75
10.5	Fouls	15.3
57	Possession %	45
2.37	xG	2.19
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.1	Shots	9.6
3.5	Shots on target	3.3
4.8	Corners	3.1
1.88	Cards	2.13
11.1	Fouls	11.3
43	Possession %	55
1.19	xG	1.17
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nashville SC	Metric	Philadelphia Union
2.80	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
2.92 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.09
	Big chances
8.40 (better)	Shots on target	7.00
17.00	Total shots	17.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.40	Corners	5.80 (better)
55.6 (better)	Possession %	46.8
477 (better)	Passes	393
	Tackles
12.80 (better)	Fouls	17.60
3.20	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nashville SC wins: 1
Draws: 2
Philadelphia Union wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union0–02026-10-29
Philadelphia Union v Nashville SC0–02026-05-02
Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union1–02025-07-06

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5