Major League Soccer · Review

Major League Soccer matchweek 33 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Major League Soccer result from matchweek 33 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 2 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 33 (31 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: 15 matches, 53 goals (3.53 a game), nine home wins, two draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in eleven of the 15 and both teams scored in eleven.

The result the model rated least likely was Minnesota United FC's win in Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC (1–3), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was Nashville SC's win in Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls (3–2), at 68%.

After the round, Nashville SC lead on 74 points, 13 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 59. The bottom three are DC United (33), CF Montreal (26), Sporting Kansas City (23).

Match by match

Charlotte 4–0 Orlando City SCSat 31 Oct, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Charlotte 54%, the draw 20% and Orlando City SC 26%, so Charlotte winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.34–0.90: Charlotte created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 59%, came in.

Columbus Crew 3–0 DC UnitedSat 31 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Columbus Crew 53%, the draw 24% and DC United 23%, so Columbus Crew winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.10–1.16: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Columbus Crew to win at 53%, came in.

FC Cincinnati 1–0 Philadelphia UnionSat 31 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Cincinnati 30%, the draw 19% and Philadelphia Union 51%, with Philadelphia Union favoured; it put FC Cincinnati winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.10–1.14: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 67%, did not come in.

New York City FC 1–1 CF MontrealSat 31 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had New York City FC 56%, the draw 24% and CF Montreal 20%, with New York City FC favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.23–0.68: New York City FC created the better chances. The headline call, New York City FC to win at 56%, did not come in.

Sporting Kansas City 1–1 FC DallasSat 31 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Sporting Kansas City 23%, the draw 20% and FC Dallas 57%, with FC Dallas favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.03–1.76: FC Dallas created the better chances. The headline call, FC Dallas to win at 57%, did not come in.

St. Louis City 0–1 San DiegoSat 31 Oct, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had St. Louis City 59%, the draw 19% and San Diego 21%, with St. Louis City favoured; it put San Diego winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.39–0.81: St. Louis City created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 56%, did not come in.

Los Angeles Galaxy 4–1 AustinSat 31 Oct, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had Los Angeles Galaxy 46%, the draw 24% and Austin 31%, so Los Angeles Galaxy winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.44–1.27: Los Angeles Galaxy created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in.

San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeSat 31 Oct, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had San Jose Earthquakes 49%, the draw 24% and Real Salt Lake 27%, so San Jose Earthquakes winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.77–1.35: San Jose Earthquakes created the better chances. The headline call, San Jose Earthquakes to win at 49%, came in.

Colorado Rapids 2–4 Chicago FireSun 1 Nov, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Colorado Rapids 35%, the draw 26% and Chicago Fire 39%, so Chicago Fire winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.45–2.37: Chicago Fire created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in. Pick published: Colorado Rapids -0.5 at 2.30 — lost.

Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 Seattle SoundersSun 1 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Vancouver Whitecaps 58%, the draw 23% and Seattle Sounders 19%, so Vancouver Whitecaps winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.47–1.26: Vancouver Whitecaps created the better chances. The headline call, Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 58%, came in.

Atlanta United FC 3–1 Toronto FCSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Before kick-off the model had Atlanta United FC 39%, the draw 25% and Toronto FC 36%, so Atlanta United FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 4.64–1.44: Atlanta United FC created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 82%, came in.

Nashville SC 3–2 New York Red BullsSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Before kick-off the model had Nashville SC 68%, the draw 20% and New York Red Bulls 12%, so Nashville SC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.65–2.93: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Nashville SC to win at 68%, came in.

New England Revolution 1–2 Inter MiamiMon 2 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had New England Revolution 36%, the draw 22% and Inter Miami 42%, so Inter Miami winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.25–1.55: Inter Miami created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 52%, did not come in. Pick published: Inter Miami +0.25 at 1.91 — won.

Los Angeles FC 1–3 Minnesota United FCMon 2 Nov, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Los Angeles FC 59%, the draw 22% and Minnesota United FC 19%, with Los Angeles FC favoured; it put Minnesota United FC winning at 19%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.85–0.68: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Los Angeles FC to win at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: Los Angeles FC -0.5 at 1.70 — lost.

Portland Timbers 3–1 Houston DynamoMon 2 Nov, 02:45

Before kick-off the model had Portland Timbers 38%, the draw 26% and Houston Dynamo 35%, so Portland Timbers winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.81–0.46: Portland Timbers created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in. Pick published: Houston Dynamo 0 at 2.85 — lost.

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.26 goals a game over 495 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.