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Major League Soccer predictions: matchweek 33 (31 October – 2 November 2026)

Every Major League Soccer match in matchweek 33 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 24 Oct 2026, updated 25 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 33: 15 matches, played across 31 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Nashville SC, 68% to beat New York Red Bulls at home; the most evenly balanced game is Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo (Portland Timbers 38%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union, at 4.55; the tightest looks New York City FC v CF Montreal, at 2.80.

Going into the round, Nashville SC lead on 70 points, 15 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 55. The bottom three are Atlanta United FC (30), CF Montreal (25), Sporting Kansas City (22).

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.24 goals a game over 465 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Charlotte v Orlando City SCSat 31 Oct, 17:00

Our model makes Charlotte 54%, the draw 20% and Orlando City SC 26%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 59%. Charlotte are 10th on 47 points from 31; Orlando City SC are 16th on 42 points from 31. Charlotte have won one of their last five; Orlando City SC have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Columbus Crew v DC UnitedSat 31 Oct, 18:00

Our model makes Columbus Crew 53%, the draw 24% and DC United 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Columbus Crew to win at 53%. Columbus Crew are 20th on 38 points from 31; DC United are 27th on 33 points from 31. Columbus Crew have won four of their last five; DC United have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Columbus Crew wins, draws and DC United wins.

FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia UnionSat 31 Oct, 18:00

Our model makes FC Cincinnati 30%, the draw 19% and Philadelphia Union 51%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (7%), 4.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 80%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 67%. FC Cincinnati are 15th on 42 points from 31; Philadelphia Union are 12th on 46 points from 31. FC Cincinnati have won three of their last five; Philadelphia Union have won three of their last five. Philadelphia Union have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

New York City FC v CF MontrealSat 31 Oct, 18:00

Our model makes New York City FC 56%, the draw 24% and CF Montreal 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is New York City FC to win at 56%. New York City FC are 23rd on 35 points from 31; CF Montreal are 29th on 25 points from 31. New York City FC are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); CF Montreal have won one of their last five.

Sporting Kansas City v FC DallasSat 31 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes Sporting Kansas City 23%, the draw 20% and FC Dallas 57%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is FC Dallas to win at 57%. Sporting Kansas City are 30th on 22 points from 31; FC Dallas are 5th on 54 points from 31. Sporting Kansas City are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); FC Dallas have won three of their last five.

St. Louis City v San DiegoSat 31 Oct, 19:00

Our model makes St. Louis City 59%, the draw 19% and San Diego 21%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 56%. St. Louis City are 6th on 51 points from 31; San Diego are 24th on 35 points from 31. St. Louis City have won two of their last five; San Diego are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat).

Los Angeles Galaxy v AustinSat 31 Oct, 21:00

Our model makes Los Angeles Galaxy 46%, the draw 24% and Austin 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.30 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Los Angeles Galaxy are 17th on 40 points from 31; Austin are 26th on 34 points from 31. Los Angeles Galaxy have won three of their last five; Austin have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Los Angeles Galaxy wins, draws and Austin wins.

San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt LakeSat 31 Oct, 21:00

Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes 49%, the draw 24% and Real Salt Lake 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is San Jose Earthquakes to win at 49%. San Jose Earthquakes are 8th on 48 points from 31; Real Salt Lake are 18th on 39 points from 31. San Jose Earthquakes have won one of their last five; Real Salt Lake have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Colorado Rapids v Chicago FireSun 1 Nov, 01:30

Our model makes Colorado Rapids 35%, the draw 26% and Chicago Fire 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Colorado Rapids are 14th on 42 points from 31; Chicago Fire are 7th on 51 points from 31. Colorado Rapids have won one of their last five; Chicago Fire have won three of their last five.

Atlanta United FC v Toronto FCSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Our model makes Atlanta United FC 39%, the draw 25% and Toronto FC 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 82%. Atlanta United FC are 28th on 30 points from 31; Toronto FC are 22nd on 36 points from 31. Atlanta United FC have won one of their last five; Toronto FC have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

Nashville SC v New York Red BullsSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Our model makes Nashville SC 68%, the draw 20% and New York Red Bulls 12%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (12%), 2.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Nashville SC to win at 68%. Nashville SC are 1st on 70 points from 31; New York Red Bulls are 19th on 39 points from 31. Nashville SC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); New York Red Bulls have won two of their last five.

Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle SoundersSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps 58%, the draw 23% and Seattle Sounders 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 58%. Vancouver Whitecaps are 2nd on 55 points from 31; Seattle Sounders are 13th on 43 points from 31. Vancouver Whitecaps have won one of their last five; Seattle Sounders have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

New England Revolution v Inter MiamiMon 2 Nov, 00:00

Our model makes New England Revolution 36%, the draw 22% and Inter Miami 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 52%. New England Revolution are 4th on 55 points from 31; Inter Miami are 3rd on 55 points from 31. New England Revolution have won three of their last five; Inter Miami have won three of their last five. Inter Miami have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FCMon 2 Nov, 01:30

Our model makes Los Angeles FC 59%, the draw 22% and Minnesota United FC 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Los Angeles FC to win at 59%. Los Angeles FC are 11th on 46 points from 31; Minnesota United FC are 25th on 35 points from 31. Los Angeles FC have won one of their last five; Minnesota United FC have won one of their last five. Los Angeles FC have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Portland Timbers v Houston DynamoMon 2 Nov, 02:30

Our model makes Portland Timbers 38%, the draw 26% and Houston Dynamo 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Portland Timbers are 21st on 37 points from 31; Houston Dynamo are 9th on 48 points from 31. Portland Timbers have won one of their last five; Houston Dynamo are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). Houston Dynamo have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.