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Major League Soccer predictions: the round of 32 (20 November 2026)

Every Major League Soccer match in the round of 32 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 12 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, the round of 32: two matches, played on 20 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Orlando City SC, 48% to beat FC Cincinnati at home; the most evenly balanced game is Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake (Seattle Sounders 42%, draw 26%, Real Salt Lake 32%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati, at 4.69; the tightest looks Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake, at 2.81.

Going into the round, Nashville SC lead on 77 points, 13 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 60. The bottom three are DC United (33), CF Montreal (26), Sporting Kansas City (26).

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.25 goals a game over 510 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 25% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Orlando City SC v FC CincinnatiFri 20 Nov, 00:30

Our model makes Orlando City SC 48%, the draw 19% and FC Cincinnati 33%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 82%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 69%. Orlando City SC are 17th on 46 points from 34; FC Cincinnati are 16th on 46 points from 34. Orlando City SC have won two of their last five; FC Cincinnati have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

Seattle Sounders v Real Salt LakeFri 20 Nov, 03:00

Our model makes Seattle Sounders 42%, the draw 26% and Real Salt Lake 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Seattle Sounders are 15th on 46 points from 34; Real Salt Lake are 18th on 45 points from 34. Seattle Sounders have won one of their last five; Real Salt Lake have won four of their last five. Seattle Sounders have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.