Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati

17th16th

00:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 95%
Over 2.5: 85%
Over 3.5: 69%
Both score: 82%

Model pick: Orlando City SC 48%
Likely score: 2-2 7%
Expected goals: 2.56 – 2.13

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Orlando City SC favoured against FC Cincinnati

Our model makes Orlando City SC 48% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 19% and FC Cincinnati at 33%. The goal projection is 2.56 for Orlando City SC against 2.13 for FC Cincinnati — a clear edge to Orlando City SC on expected output. A combined 4.69 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 85% and both teams to score at 82%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-2 7%; 2-1 6%; 3-2 6%; 3-1 5%; 1-2 5%

This season

Season records for Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC		FC Cincinnati
34	Played	34
13-7-14	W-D-L	12-10-12
1.35	Pts / game	1.35
1.85	Goals for / game	1.97
2.29	Goals against / game	2.21
76%	Over 2.5	68%
68%	BTTS	71%
15%	Clean sheets	12%
18%	Failed to score	18%
10-3-4	Home record	9-3-5
3-4-10	Away record	3-7-7
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Orlando City SC · FC Cincinnati

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.5	Shots	14.9
5.3	Shots on target	4.9
3.8	Corners	5.0
2.38	Cards	2.11
11.8	Fouls	10.4
50	Possession %	49
1.50	xG	1.51
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.9	Shots	12.6
6.9	Shots on target	4.3
7.5	Corners	5.7
2.00	Cards	1.67
14.3	Fouls	9.2
50	Possession %	51
2.37	xG	1.06
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Orlando City SC	Metric	FC Cincinnati
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.23 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.20
	Big chances
5.60 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
12.60 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
3.20	Corners	4.20 (better)
47.2 (better)	Possession %	46.6
452 (better)	Passes	418
	Tackles
11.00	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.20	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Orlando City SC wins: 0
Draws: 2
FC Cincinnati wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 100%

Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati1–12026-08-15
FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC6–22026-05-23
FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC1–12025-09-28

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5