Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake

15th18th

03:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Seattle Sounders 42%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.51 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Members

Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

Unlock every pick

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Seattle Sounders favoured against Real Salt Lake

Our model makes Seattle Sounders 42% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 26% and Real Salt Lake at 32%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Seattle Sounders against 1.30 for Real Salt Lake — a slight edge to Seattle Sounders on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders		Real Salt Lake
34	Played	34
12-10-12	W-D-L	13-6-15
1.35	Pts / game	1.32
1.29	Goals for / game	1.56
1.35	Goals against / game	1.53
47%	Over 2.5	71%
59%	BTTS	71%
24%	Clean sheets	12%
24%	Failed to score	18%
8-4-5	Home record	10-3-4
4-6-7	Away record	3-3-11
W1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Seattle Sounders · Real Salt Lake

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	15.8
5.1	Shots on target	6.0
6.5	Corners	5.0
1.70	Cards	2.22
11.7	Fouls	11.6
53	Possession %	48
1.43	xG	2.08
10 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	12.6
4.7	Shots on target	3.3
5.5	Corners	6.2
1.30	Cards	2.22
9.0	Fouls	11.9
47	Possession %	52
1.45	xG	1.04
10 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Seattle Sounders	Metric	Real Salt Lake
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.34	Expected goals (xG)	2.32 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	6.80 (better)
13.80	Total shots	17.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	6.00 (better)
53.0 (better)	Possession %	51.6
579 (better)	Passes	499
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	12.60 (better)
2.40	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Seattle Sounders wins: 2
Draws: 0
Real Salt Lake wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake2–02026-09-24
Real Salt Lake v Seattle Sounders2–12026-03-01
Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake1–02025-10-12

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5