Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC

12th1–319th

01:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Los Angeles FC		Minnesota United FC
22	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	1
15	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
481	Passes	505
60%	Possession %	40%
0.85	xG	0.68

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Los Angeles FC 59%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.06 – 1.10

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Los Angeles FC -0.5

1.70Betano · fair 1.52 · qualifies at 1.56+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Los Angeles FC -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Betano — Los Angeles FC must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 59% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 70%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Los Angeles FC 2.06, Minnesota United FC 1.10.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Los Angeles FC	59.0%	1.70	1.74 Dafabet	57.5%	+1.5
Match result	Draw	21.8%	4.58	4.65 Betano	21.5%	+0.3
Match result	Minnesota United FC	19.2%	5.21	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.21	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.87	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.4%	1.63	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-6.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.6%	2.59	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.1%	2.56	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-3.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.9%	1.64	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.9%	1.70	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-4.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.1%	2.43	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Los Angeles FC favoured against Minnesota United FC

Our model makes Los Angeles FC 59% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 22% and Minnesota United FC at 19%. The goal projection is 2.06 for Los Angeles FC against 1.10 for Minnesota United FC — a commanding edge to Los Angeles FC on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Los Angeles FC and Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC		Minnesota United FC
34	Played	34
12-11-11	W-D-L	11-11-12
1.38	Pts / game	1.29
1.53	Goals for / game	1.65
1.18	Goals against / game	1.71
53%	Over 2.5	68%
53%	BTTS	74%
38%	Clean sheets	18%
18%	Failed to score	18%
9-4-4	Home record	5-7-5
3-7-7	Away record	6-4-7
L2	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Los Angeles FC · Minnesota United FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.1	Shots	15.4
5.9	Shots on target	5.4
6.9	Corners	5.4
1.71	Cards	2.25
11.7	Fouls	13.4
50	Possession %	46
1.89	xG	1.50
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.9	Shots	13.5
3.3	Shots on target	4.6
3.3	Corners	5.3
2.29	Cards	2.00
12.7	Fouls	11.3
50	Possession %	54
0.91	xG	1.23
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Los Angeles FC	Metric	Minnesota United FC
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.62	Expected goals (xG)	1.92 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
12.40	Total shots	16.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	5.20 (better)
40.8	Possession %	44.0 (better)
401	Passes	408 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	12.40
1.60	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.20	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Los Angeles FC wins: 2
Draws: 0
Minnesota United FC wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC1–32026-11-02
Minnesota United FC v Los Angeles FC0–12026-04-25
Minnesota United FC v Los Angeles FC0–12025-07-17

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5