Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo

14th3–110th

02:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Portland Timbers		Houston Dynamo
18	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	6
11	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
443	Passes	542
46%	Possession %	54%
3.81	xG	0.46

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Portland Timbers 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.39

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Houston Dynamo 0

2.85Bet365 · fair 2.59 · qualifies at 2.66+ · 1.37u

Why this price?

Back Houston Dynamo 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.85 with Bet365 — Houston Dynamo to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.59. The offered 2.85 implies only 35%, so the price is 10.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.37 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Portland Timbers 1.46, Houston Dynamo 1.39.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Portland Timbers	38.5%	2.60	1.88 Dafabet	53.2%	-14.7
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.82	4.25 Betano	23.5%	+2.6
Match result	Houston Dynamo	35.4%	2.83	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+13.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.3%	1.28	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.7%	4.62	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.3%	1.84	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-7.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.7%	2.19	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.0%	3.13	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-7.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.0%	1.47	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.3%	1.72	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.7%	2.40	2.40 William Hill	41.7%	+0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo: too close to call

Our model makes Portland Timbers 38% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 26% and Houston Dynamo at 35%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Portland Timbers against 1.39 for Houston Dynamo — almost nothing to Portland Timbers on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Portland Timbers and Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers		Houston Dynamo
34	Played	34
13-7-14	W-D-L	14-9-11
1.35	Pts / game	1.50
1.82	Goals for / game	1.26
1.79	Goals against / game	1.26
71%	Over 2.5	41%
74%	BTTS	41%
9%	Clean sheets	38%
21%	Failed to score	29%
9-4-4	Home record	8-5-4
4-3-10	Away record	6-4-7
W4	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Portland Timbers · Houston Dynamo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.5	Shots	12.5
5.9	Shots on target	3.0
5.0	Corners	5.1
1.63	Cards	2.13
11.4	Fouls	8.9
48	Possession %	48
1.66	xG	0.99
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	15.8
4.5	Shots on target	4.9
4.5	Corners	5.8
1.50	Cards	1.75
12.1	Fouls	14.5
52	Possession %	53
1.24	xG	2.04
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Portland Timbers	Metric	Houston Dynamo
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.57 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.17
	Big chances
6.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
15.40 (better)	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	5.00
52.2 (better)	Possession %	51.0
512 (better)	Passes	501
	Tackles
11.60	Fouls	8.60 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Portland Timbers wins: 1
Draws: 0
Houston Dynamo wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo3–12026-11-02
Houston Dynamo v Portland Timbers3–22026-03-15
Houston Dynamo v Portland Timbers1–02025-09-21

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5