Major League Soccer · Preview

Major League Soccer predictions: matchweek 32 (28–29 October 2026)

Every Major League Soccer match in matchweek 32 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 21 Oct 2026, updated 22 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 32: 14 matches, played across 28–29 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Inter Miami, 72% to beat FC Cincinnati at home; the most evenly balanced game is Austin v Real Salt Lake (Austin 40%, draw 25%, Real Salt Lake 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati, at 5.38; the tightest looks Seattle Sounders v Houston Dynamo, at 2.39.

Going into the round, Nashville SC lead on 67 points, twelve points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 55. The bottom three are Atlanta United FC (30), CF Montreal (25), Sporting Kansas City (22).

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.25 goals a game over 450 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Charlotte v CF MontrealWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Charlotte 62%, the draw 21% and CF Montreal 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.23 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Charlotte to win at 62%. Charlotte are 9th on 47 points from 30; CF Montreal are 29th on 25 points from 30. Charlotte have won two of their last five; CF Montreal have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Charlotte wins, draws and CF Montreal wins.

Inter Miami v FC CincinnatiWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Inter Miami 72%, the draw 13% and FC Cincinnati 15%. The likeliest score is 3-1 (6%), 5.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 81%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 78%. Inter Miami are 3rd on 55 points from 30; FC Cincinnati are 19th on 36 points from 29. Inter Miami have won three of their last five; FC Cincinnati have won one of their last five. Inter Miami have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

New England Revolution v New York Red BullsWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes New England Revolution 55%, the draw 24% and New York Red Bulls 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is New England Revolution to win at 55%. New England Revolution are 4th on 52 points from 30; New York Red Bulls are 20th on 36 points from 30. New England Revolution have won three of their last five; New York Red Bulls have won two of their last five. New York Red Bulls have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

New York City FC v Atlanta United FCWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes New York City FC 50%, the draw 26% and Atlanta United FC 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is New York City FC to win at 50%. New York City FC are 22nd on 34 points from 30; Atlanta United FC are 28th on 30 points from 30. New York City FC are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Atlanta United FC have won two of their last five.

Toronto FC v DC UnitedWed 28 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Toronto FC 51%, the draw 23% and DC United 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Toronto FC to win at 51%. Toronto FC are 18th on 36 points from 30; DC United are 26th on 33 points from 29. Toronto FC have won two of their last five; DC United have won one of their last five.

Austin v Real Salt LakeThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Austin 40%, the draw 25% and Real Salt Lake 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.16 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 83%. Austin are 27th on 31 points from 30; Real Salt Lake are 17th on 36 points from 30. Austin are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Real Salt Lake have won two of their last five. Real Salt Lake have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Chicago Fire v Orlando City SCThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Chicago Fire 53%, the draw 20% and Orlando City SC 27%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 61%. Chicago Fire are 8th on 48 points from 30; Orlando City SC are 14th on 41 points from 30. Chicago Fire have won three of their last five; Orlando City SC have won two of their last five. Chicago Fire have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

FC Dallas v Columbus CrewThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes FC Dallas 47%, the draw 24% and Columbus Crew 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is FC Dallas to win at 47%. FC Dallas are 6th on 51 points from 30; Columbus Crew are 21st on 35 points from 30. FC Dallas have won two of their last five; Columbus Crew have won four of their last five.

Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas CityThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Minnesota United FC 62%, the draw 18% and Sporting Kansas City 20%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 61%. Minnesota United FC are 25th on 34 points from 30; Sporting Kansas City are 30th on 22 points from 30. Minnesota United FC have won one of their last five; Sporting Kansas City have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Minnesota United FC wins, draws and Sporting Kansas City wins.

Nashville SC v Philadelphia UnionThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Nashville SC 55%, the draw 22% and Philadelphia Union 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.30 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Nashville SC to win at 55%. Nashville SC are 1st on 67 points from 30; Philadelphia Union are 12th on 46 points from 30. Nashville SC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

St. Louis City v Portland TimbersThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes St. Louis City 62%, the draw 19% and Portland Timbers 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is St. Louis City to win at 62%. St. Louis City are 5th on 51 points from 30; Portland Timbers are 24th on 34 points from 30. St. Louis City have won three of their last five; Portland Timbers are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado RapidsThu 29 Oct, 02:30

Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes 47%, the draw 26% and Colorado Rapids 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.82 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is San Jose Earthquakes to win at 47%. San Jose Earthquakes are 7th on 48 points from 30; Colorado Rapids are 16th on 39 points from 30. San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Colorado Rapids are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat).

Seattle Sounders v Houston DynamoThu 29 Oct, 02:30

Our model makes Seattle Sounders 40%, the draw 29% and Houston Dynamo 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Seattle Sounders are 13th on 42 points from 30; Houston Dynamo are 10th on 47 points from 30. Seattle Sounders have won three of their last five; Houston Dynamo are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat).

Vancouver Whitecaps v San DiegoThu 29 Oct, 02:30

Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps 64%, the draw 19% and San Diego 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 64%. Vancouver Whitecaps are 2nd on 55 points from 30; San Diego are 23rd on 34 points from 30. Vancouver Whitecaps have won one of their last five; San Diego are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). Vancouver Whitecaps have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.