Major League Soccer · Review

Major League Soccer matchweek 31 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Major League Soccer result from matchweek 31 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 26 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 31 (24–26 October 2026), is complete: 15 matches, 47 goals (3.13 a game), six home wins, four draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in ten of the 15 and both teams scored in eight.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles Galaxy (2–2), which it had at 22%; the one it rated most likely was Nashville SC's win in CF Montreal v Nashville SC (0–2), at 64%.

After the round, Nashville SC lead on 70 points, 15 points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 55. The bottom three are Atlanta United FC (30), CF Montreal (25), Sporting Kansas City (22).

Match by match

CF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SCSat 24 Oct, 18:30

Before kick-off the model had CF Montreal 15%, the draw 21% and Nashville SC 64%, so Nashville SC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 0-2, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.56–1.84: Nashville SC created the better chances. The headline call, Nashville SC to win at 64%, came in.

Columbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FCSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Columbus Crew 47%, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 29%, so Columbus Crew winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.30–2.36: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Columbus Crew to win at 47%, came in. Pick published: Toronto FC 0 at 3.55 — lost.

New York Red Bulls 2–0 Inter MiamiSat 24 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had New York Red Bulls 24%, the draw 21% and Inter Miami 56%, with Inter Miami favoured; it put New York Red Bulls winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 3.73–1.08: New York Red Bulls created the better chances. The headline call, Inter Miami to win at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: Inter Miami +0.25 at 1.67 — lost.

Atlanta United FC 2–3 Chicago FireSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Atlanta United FC 32%, the draw 25% and Chicago Fire 43%, so Chicago Fire winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.85–1.59: Chicago Fire created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in.

DC United 0–2 FC CincinnatiSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had DC United 42%, the draw 21% and FC Cincinnati 36%, with DC United favoured; it put FC Cincinnati winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.66–0.99: FC Cincinnati created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

Orlando City SC 2–2 New York City FCSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Orlando City SC 40%, the draw 23% and New York City FC 37%, with Orlando City SC favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.86–1.77: New York City FC created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 47%, came in.

Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England RevolutionSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Philadelphia Union 54%, the draw 21% and New England Revolution 24%, with Philadelphia Union favoured; it put New England Revolution winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.62–2.30: Philadelphia Union created the better chances. The headline call, Philadelphia Union to win at 54%, did not come in.

FC Dallas 3–0 San Jose EarthquakesSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Dallas 48%, the draw 23% and San Jose Earthquakes 29%, so FC Dallas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.48–0.37: FC Dallas created the better chances. The headline call, FC Dallas to win at 48%, came in.

Houston Dynamo 0–0 Minnesota United FCSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Houston Dynamo 49%, the draw 25% and Minnesota United FC 26%, with Houston Dynamo favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.77–1.36: Minnesota United FC created the better chances. The headline call, Houston Dynamo to win at 49%, did not come in. Pick published: Houston Dynamo -0.5 at 1.91 — lost.

Sporting Kansas City 1–2 AustinSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Sporting Kansas City 35%, the draw 23% and Austin 42%, so Austin winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.53–1.80: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 50%, did not come in.

Colorado Rapids 1–0 Vancouver WhitecapsSun 25 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Colorado Rapids 25%, the draw 25% and Vancouver Whitecaps 50%, with Vancouver Whitecaps favoured; it put Colorado Rapids winning at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.90–0.38: Colorado Rapids created the better chances. The headline call, Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 50%, did not come in.

Portland Timbers 3–2 CharlotteSun 25 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Portland Timbers 36%, the draw 23% and Charlotte 42%, with Charlotte favoured; it put Portland Timbers winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.38–0.86: Portland Timbers created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 47%, came in.

Real Salt Lake 3–0 St. Louis CitySun 25 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had Real Salt Lake 28%, the draw 23% and St. Louis City 48%, with St. Louis City favoured; it put Real Salt Lake winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 4.10–0.17: Real Salt Lake created the better chances. The headline call, St. Louis City to win at 48%, did not come in.

San Diego 2–2 Seattle SoundersSun 25 Oct, 02:30

Before kick-off the model had San Diego 41%, the draw 25% and Seattle Sounders 34%, with San Diego favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.41–1.37: San Diego created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in.

Los Angeles FC 2–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMon 26 Oct, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Los Angeles FC 60%, the draw 22% and Los Angeles Galaxy 18%, with Los Angeles FC favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.38–1.74: Los Angeles FC created the better chances. The headline call, Los Angeles FC to win at 60%, did not come in. Picks published: Los Angeles FC -0.5 at 1.53 — lost; Under 2.5 at 2.92 — lost.

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.24 goals a game over 466 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 45% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.