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Major League Soccer predictions: matchweek 31 (24–26 October 2026)

Every Major League Soccer match in matchweek 31 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 17 Oct 2026, updated 18 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Major League Soccer, matchweek 31: 15 matches, played across 24–26 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Nashville SC, 64% to beat CF Montreal away; the most evenly balanced game is Orlando City SC v New York City FC (Orlando City SC 40%, draw 23%, New York City FC 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is DC United v FC Cincinnati, at 4.00; the tightest looks Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps, at 2.91.

Going into the round, Nashville SC lead on 67 points, twelve points clear of Vancouver Whitecaps, with Inter Miami third on 55. The bottom three are Atlanta United FC (30), CF Montreal (25), Sporting Kansas City (22).

The numbers this season

Major League Soccer has averaged 3.25 goals a game over 449 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

CF Montreal v Nashville SCSat 24 Oct, 18:30

Our model makes CF Montreal 15%, the draw 21% and Nashville SC 64%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (11%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Nashville SC to win at 64%. CF Montreal are 29th on 25 points from 30; Nashville SC are 1st on 67 points from 30. CF Montreal have won one of their last five; Nashville SC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Columbus Crew v Toronto FCSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes Columbus Crew 47%, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Columbus Crew to win at 47%. Columbus Crew are 26th on 32 points from 29; Toronto FC are 19th on 36 points from 30. Columbus Crew have won three of their last five; Toronto FC have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

New York Red Bulls v Inter MiamiSat 24 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes New York Red Bulls 24%, the draw 21% and Inter Miami 56%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Inter Miami to win at 56%. New York Red Bulls are 20th on 36 points from 30; Inter Miami are 3rd on 55 points from 30. New York Red Bulls have won two of their last five; Inter Miami have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Atlanta United FC v Chicago FireSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Atlanta United FC 32%, the draw 25% and Chicago Fire 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Atlanta United FC are 28th on 30 points from 30; Chicago Fire are 8th on 48 points from 30. Atlanta United FC have won two of their last five; Chicago Fire have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

DC United v FC CincinnatiSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes DC United 42%, the draw 21% and FC Cincinnati 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 4.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 75%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 57%. DC United are 25th on 33 points from 29; FC Cincinnati are 18th on 36 points from 28. DC United have won one of their last five; FC Cincinnati have won one of their last five.

Orlando City SC v New York City FCSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Orlando City SC 40%, the draw 23% and New York City FC 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 47%. Orlando City SC are 14th on 41 points from 30; New York City FC are 21st on 34 points from 30. Orlando City SC have won two of their last five; New York City FC are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). New York City FC have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Philadelphia Union v New England RevolutionSun 25 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Philadelphia Union 54%, the draw 21% and New England Revolution 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Philadelphia Union to win at 54%. Philadelphia Union are 12th on 46 points from 30; New England Revolution are 4th on 52 points from 30. Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); New England Revolution have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Philadelphia Union wins, draws and New England Revolution wins.

Colorado Rapids v Vancouver WhitecapsSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Our model makes Colorado Rapids 25%, the draw 25% and Vancouver Whitecaps 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 50%. Colorado Rapids are 16th on 39 points from 30; Vancouver Whitecaps are 2nd on 55 points from 30. Colorado Rapids are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); Vancouver Whitecaps have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Colorado Rapids wins, draws and Vancouver Whitecaps wins.

FC Dallas v San Jose EarthquakesSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Our model makes FC Dallas 48%, the draw 23% and San Jose Earthquakes 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.37 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. FC Dallas are 6th on 51 points from 30; San Jose Earthquakes are 7th on 48 points from 30. FC Dallas have won two of their last five; San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United FCSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Our model makes Houston Dynamo 49%, the draw 25% and Minnesota United FC 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Houston Dynamo to win at 49%. Houston Dynamo are 10th on 47 points from 30; Minnesota United FC are 24th on 34 points from 30. Houston Dynamo are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); Minnesota United FC have won one of their last five.

Real Salt Lake v St. Louis CitySun 25 Oct, 01:30

Our model makes Real Salt Lake 28%, the draw 23% and St. Louis City 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is St. Louis City to win at 48%. Real Salt Lake are 17th on 36 points from 30; St. Louis City are 5th on 51 points from 30. Real Salt Lake have won two of their last five; St. Louis City have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.

Sporting Kansas City v AustinSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Our model makes Sporting Kansas City 35%, the draw 23% and Austin 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 50%. Sporting Kansas City are 30th on 22 points from 30; Austin are 27th on 31 points from 30. Sporting Kansas City have won one of their last five; Austin are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sporting Kansas City wins, draws and Austin wins.

Portland Timbers v CharlotteSun 25 Oct, 02:30

Our model makes Portland Timbers 36%, the draw 23% and Charlotte 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 47%. Portland Timbers are 23rd on 34 points from 30; Charlotte are 9th on 47 points from 30. Portland Timbers are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Charlotte have won two of their last five.

San Diego v Seattle SoundersSun 25 Oct, 02:30

Our model makes San Diego 41%, the draw 25% and Seattle Sounders 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 83%. San Diego are 22nd on 34 points from 30; Seattle Sounders are 13th on 42 points from 30. San Diego are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); Seattle Sounders have won three of their last five.

Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles GalaxyMon 26 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Los Angeles FC 60%, the draw 22% and Los Angeles Galaxy 18%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Los Angeles FC to win at 60%. Los Angeles FC are 11th on 46 points from 31; Los Angeles Galaxy are 15th on 40 points from 31. Los Angeles FC have won one of their last five; Los Angeles Galaxy have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.