Predicted Edge

Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles Galaxy

Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 512th2–2Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 520th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles Galaxy
21Shots10
5Shots on target4
12Corners1
9Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
4Offsides2
568Passes426
57%Possession %43%
2.38xG1.74
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Los Angeles FC 60%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.00

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 4 of 5

Los Angeles FC -0.5

1.53Betano · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Los Angeles FC -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.53 with Betano — Los Angeles FC must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 78%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.53 implies only 65%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Los Angeles FC 2.01, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.00.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 2 of 5

Under 2.5

2.92Betano · fair 2.75 · qualifies at 2.86+ · 0.82u
Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.92 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.75. The offered 2.92 implies only 34%, so the price is 6.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.82 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Los Angeles FC 2.01, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.00.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsOver 1.580.7%1.241.15 Betano87.0%-6.2
Total goalsUnder 1.519.3%5.196.50 Bet36515.4%+3.9
Total goalsOver 2.557.9%1.731.47 Betano68.0%-10.1
Total goalsUnder 2.542.1%2.382.92 Betano34.2%+7.8
Total goalsOver 3.535.5%2.812.15 Betano46.5%-11.0
Total goalsUnder 3.564.5%1.551.80 Betfair55.6%+8.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes55.3%1.811.53 Bet36565.4%-10.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No44.7%2.232.55 Betfair39.2%+5.5
Match resultLos Angeles FC60.3%1.661.60 Betano62.5%-2.2
Match resultDraw22.1%4.534.85 Betano20.6%+1.4
Match resultLos Angeles Galaxy17.6%5.675.50 Bet36518.2%-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Los Angeles FC favoured against Los Angeles Galaxy

Our model makes Los Angeles FC 60% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 22% and Los Angeles Galaxy at 18%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Los Angeles FC against 1.00 for Los Angeles Galaxy — a commanding edge to Los Angeles FC on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Los Angeles FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 40% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-0 10%
2-1 10%
1-0 9%
3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles Galaxy
34Played34
12-11-11W-D-L11-11-12
1.38Pts / game1.29
1.53Goals for / game1.47
1.18Goals against / game1.68
53%Over 2.568%
53%BTTS76%
38%Clean sheets15%
18%Failed to score12%
9-4-4Home record7-6-4
3-7-7Away record4-5-8
L2StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Los Angeles FC · Los Angeles Galaxy

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.1Shots13.7
5.9Shots on target6.0
6.9Corners4.6
1.71Cards1.57
11.7Fouls9.0
50Possession %45
1.89xG1.54
7 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.9Shots14.1
3.3Shots on target4.9
3.3Corners5.6
2.29Cards2.29
12.7Fouls12.4
50Possession %55
0.91xG2.01
7 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Los Angeles FCMetricLos Angeles Galaxy
1.40Goals scored2.40 (better)
1.20 (better)Goals conceded2.40
1.62 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.47
Big chances
4.60Shots on target6.60 (better)
12.40Total shots14.20 (better)
Touches in opp. box
3.80Corners4.60 (better)
40.8Possession %42.8 (better)
400Passes415 (better)
Tackles
10.00Fouls9.80 (better)
1.60 (better)Offsides1.80
Throw-ins
1.80Yellow cards1.80
0.20Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Los Angeles FC wins
1
Draws
2
Los Angeles Galaxy wins
0
Goals / game
4.33
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
67%
Major League Soccer table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Nashville SC342383+4677Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2Vancouver Whitecaps341978+4064Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3Inter Miami3416126+2160Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4FC Dallas3416108+1158FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5New England Revolution3418412+858New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6Chicago Fire3416711+1055Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7Charlotte3415910+1554Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8St. Louis City3415910+1154St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9San Jose Earthquakes34141010+652San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10Houston Dynamo3414911051Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11Philadelphia Union3414812+1450Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12Los Angeles FC34121111+1247Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13Columbus Crew3414515+747Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14Portland Timbers3413714+146Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15Seattle Sounders34121012-246Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16FC Cincinnati34121012-846FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17Orlando City SC3413714-1546Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18Real Salt Lake3413615+145Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19Minnesota United FC34111112-244Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20Los Angeles Galaxy34111112-744Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21Colorado Rapids3412715-343Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22New York City FC34101212+442New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23New York Red Bulls3412616-1442New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24Toronto FC3491213-1539Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25San Diego3491114-638San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26Austin3481016-2334Austin won 1 of the last 5
27Atlanta United FC349619-1733Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28DC United3471215-2233DC United won 0 of the last 5
29CF Montreal346820-3226CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30Sporting Kansas City347522-4126Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5