Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City

19th3–130th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Minnesota United FC		Sporting Kansas City
18	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
8	Corners	4
12	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
546	Passes	421
58%	Possession %	42%
1.86	xG	0.78

Over 1.5: 93%
Over 2.5: 79%
Over 3.5: 61%
Both score: 73%

Model pick: Minnesota United FC 62%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.70 – 1.51

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

1.93Betano · fair 1.83 · qualifies at 1.91+ · 1.43u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 1.93 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.83. The offered 1.93 implies only 52%, so the price is 5.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Minnesota United FC 2.70, Sporting Kansas City 1.51.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Minnesota United FC	62.3%	1.60	1.48 Dafabet	67.6%	-5.3
Match result	Draw	18.0%	5.56	5.40 Dafabet	18.5%	-0.5
Match result	Sporting Kansas City	19.7%	5.08	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	92.6%	1.08	1.11 Betano	90.1%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	7.4%	13.45	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	-5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	79.1%	1.26	1.36 Betano	73.5%	+5.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	20.9%	4.78	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	60.6%	1.65	1.90 Betano	52.6%	+8.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	39.4%	2.54	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-11.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	73.0%	1.37	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	27.0%	3.71	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-11.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Minnesota United FC favoured against Sporting Kansas City

Our model makes Minnesota United FC 62% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 18% and Sporting Kansas City at 20%. The goal projection is 2.70 for Minnesota United FC against 1.51 for Sporting Kansas City — a commanding edge to Minnesota United FC on expected output. A combined 4.21 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 79% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Minnesota United FC is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 3-1 7%; 1-1 6%; 2-2 6%; 3-2 6%

This season

Season records for Minnesota United FC and Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC		Sporting Kansas City
34	Played	34
11-11-12	W-D-L	7-5-22
1.29	Pts / game	0.76
1.65	Goals for / game	1.18
1.71	Goals against / game	2.38
68%	Over 2.5	76%
74%	BTTS	65%
18%	Clean sheets	6%
18%	Failed to score	29%
5-7-5	Home record	3-5-9
6-4-7	Away record	4-0-13
W3	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Minnesota United FC · Sporting Kansas City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	12.6
5.4	Shots on target	4.7
5.4	Corners	4.3
2.25	Cards	2.00
13.4	Fouls	12.6
46	Possession %	46
1.50	xG	1.24
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.5	Shots	15.6
4.6	Shots on target	6.2
5.3	Corners	6.7
2.00	Cards	2.33
11.3	Fouls	10.4
54	Possession %	54
1.23	xG	1.86
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Minnesota United FC	Metric	Sporting Kansas City
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.40	Goals conceded	2.40
2.05 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.33
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
16.40 (better)	Total shots	12.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	5.20 (better)
43.8	Possession %	47.4 (better)
394	Passes	442 (better)
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	11.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	1.40
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Minnesota United FC wins: 2
Draws: 0
Sporting Kansas City wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City3–12026-10-29
Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC2–12026-07-23
Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City3–02025-10-05

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5