Inter Miami v Charlotte

3rd3–37th

21:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Inter Miami		Charlotte
15	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	2
14	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
670	Passes	444
60%	Possession %	40%
2.14	xG	1.80

Over 1.5: 92%
Over 2.5: 77%
Over 3.5: 58%
Both score: 74%

Model pick: Inter Miami 53%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.38 – 1.69

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	20.2%	4.95	6.00 Dafabet	16.7%	+3.5
Match result	Inter Miami	52.8%	1.90	1.41 Dafabet	70.9%	-18.1
Match result	Charlotte	27.0%	3.70	7.50 Bet365	13.3%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	91.7%	1.09	1.07 Betano	93.5%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	8.3%	11.99	11.00 Bet365	9.1%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	77.1%	1.30	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-2.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	22.9%	4.38	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	57.9%	1.73	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	42.1%	2.38	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	74.3%	1.34	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	25.7%	3.90	3.20 BetVictor	31.3%	-5.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter Miami favoured against Charlotte

Our model makes Inter Miami 53% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 20% and Charlotte at 27%. The goal projection is 2.38 for Inter Miami against 1.69 for Charlotte — a substantial edge to Inter Miami on expected output. A combined 4.07 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 1-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 6%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Inter Miami and Charlotte
Inter Miami		Charlotte
34	Played	34
16-12-6	W-D-L	15-9-10
1.76	Pts / game	1.59
2.35	Goals for / game	1.94
1.74	Goals against / game	1.50
76%	Over 2.5	74%
76%	BTTS	68%
18%	Clean sheets	21%
9%	Failed to score	18%
6-9-2	Home record	10-4-3
10-3-4	Away record	5-5-7
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Inter Miami · Charlotte

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	12.1
5.3	Shots on target	4.5
3.0	Corners	5.0
2.24	Cards	1.88
13.7	Fouls	10.5
57	Possession %	47
1.74	xG	1.86
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	19.1
4.0	Shots on target	7.4
4.0	Corners	6.4
1.33	Cards	1.50
9.4	Fouls	12.6
43	Possession %	53
1.73	xG	2.22
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Inter Miami	Metric	Charlotte
2.20	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.63 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.62
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
12.60 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.00 (better)
60.2 (better)	Possession %	50.8
635 (better)	Passes	458
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Inter Miami wins: 0
Draws: 2
Charlotte wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Inter Miami v Charlotte3–32026-11-07
Charlotte v Inter Miami0–02026-03-14
Charlotte v Inter Miami3–02025-09-13

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5