FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids

4th3–121st

00:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Dallas		Colorado Rapids
27	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	4
11	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	4
442	Passes	437
51%	Possession %	49%
3.72	xG	0.73

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: FC Dallas 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.72 – 1.20

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Colorado Rapids +0.25

2.73BetVictor · fair 2.44 · qualifies at 2.52+ · 1.71u

Why this price?

Back Colorado Rapids +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.73 with BetVictor — Colorado Rapids starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.44. The offered 2.73 implies only 37%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.71 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Dallas 1.72, Colorado Rapids 1.20.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.9%	2.38	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+0.6
Match result	FC Dallas	49.0%	2.04	2.04 Dafabet	49.0%	-0.0
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	3.80 Betano	26.3%	-1.5
Match result	Colorado Rapids	26.1%	3.83	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.5%	1.26	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.5%	4.89	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.1%	1.78	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.9%	2.27	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.7%	2.97	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-2.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.3%	1.51	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.1%	1.72	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Dallas favoured against Colorado Rapids

Our model makes FC Dallas 49% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 25% and Colorado Rapids at 26%. The goal projection is 1.72 for FC Dallas against 1.20 for Colorado Rapids — a substantial edge to FC Dallas on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas		Colorado Rapids
34	Played	34
16-10-8	W-D-L	12-7-15
1.71	Pts / game	1.26
1.82	Goals for / game	1.38
1.50	Goals against / game	1.47
65%	Over 2.5	50%
62%	BTTS	50%
24%	Clean sheets	32%
24%	Failed to score	24%
9-5-3	Home record	10-3-4
7-5-5	Away record	2-4-11
W1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Dallas · Colorado Rapids

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	11.6
5.1	Shots on target	4.4
5.6	Corners	5.4
1.88	Cards	3.00
13.8	Fouls	14.5
47	Possession %	57
2.11	xG	1.31
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	14.4
3.8	Shots on target	5.3
5.4	Corners	4.9
2.25	Cards	1.13
11.9	Fouls	13.5
53	Possession %	43
1.49	xG	1.69
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Dallas	Metric	Colorado Rapids
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.95 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.33
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
14.80 (better)	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.60
46.6	Possession %	57.6 (better)
419	Passes	461 (better)
	Tackles
13.40 (better)	Fouls	14.40
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.50 (better)	Red cards	0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Dallas wins: 3
Draws: 0
Colorado Rapids wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids3–12026-11-08
Colorado Rapids v FC Dallas1–22026-05-24
FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids3–12025-09-21

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5