Orlando City SC v New England Revolution

17th1–05th

21:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Orlando City SC		New England Revolution
15	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	8
8	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
373	Passes	683
35%	Possession %	65%
1.20	xG	0.91

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 76%
Over 3.5: 57%
Both score: 75%

Model pick: New England Revolution 40%
Likely score: 1-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.00 – 2.01

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Orlando City SC -0.75

2.08Bet365 · fair 1.89 · qualifies at 1.94+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Orlando City SC -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.08 with Bet365 — Orlando City SC must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.88. The offered 2.08 implies only 48%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Orlando City SC 2.00, New England Revolution 2.01.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Orlando City SC	39.1%	2.56	2.07 Dafabet	48.3%	-9.3
Match result	Draw	21.4%	4.67	4.25 Betano	23.5%	-2.1
Match result	New England Revolution	39.5%	2.53	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	+9.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	91.3%	1.10	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	8.7%	11.46	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	-2.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	76.3%	1.31	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	+2.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	23.7%	4.22	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	56.8%	1.76	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	43.2%	2.32	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	75.2%	1.33	1.36 Betfair	73.5%	+1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	24.8%	4.04	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-3.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Orlando City SC v New England Revolution: too close to call

Our model makes Orlando City SC 39% to win this Major League Soccer fixture, with the draw at 21% and New England Revolution at 40%. The goal projection is 2.00 for Orlando City SC against 2.01 for New England Revolution — almost nothing to New England Revolution on expected output. A combined 4.01 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 8%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Orlando City SC and New England Revolution
Orlando City SC		New England Revolution
34	Played	34
13-7-14	W-D-L	18-4-12
1.35	Pts / game	1.71
1.85	Goals for / game	1.62
2.29	Goals against / game	1.38
76%	Over 2.5	71%
68%	BTTS	62%
15%	Clean sheets	18%
18%	Failed to score	24%
10-3-4	Home record	11-2-4
3-4-10	Away record	7-2-8
W1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Orlando City SC · New England Revolution

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.5	Shots	10.9
5.3	Shots on target	4.5
3.8	Corners	5.9
2.38	Cards	1.13
11.8	Fouls	8.5
50	Possession %	53
1.50	xG	1.29
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.9	Shots	16.5
6.9	Shots on target	6.9
7.5	Corners	5.5
2.00	Cards	2.13
14.3	Fouls	12.3
50	Possession %	47
2.37	xG	1.73
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Orlando City SC	Metric	New England Revolution
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
2.00	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.76 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.41
	Big chances
5.60 (better)	Shots on target	5.20
13.00 (better)	Total shots	9.80
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	4.20 (better)
51.4 (better)	Possession %	47.0
460 (better)	Passes	453
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	7.60 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Orlando City SC wins: 2
Draws: 0
New England Revolution wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Orlando City SC v New England Revolution1–02026-11-07
New England Revolution v Orlando City SC4–22026-09-19
New England Revolution v Orlando City SC1–22025-07-19

Major League Soccer table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77	Nashville SC won 3 of the last 5
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64	Vancouver Whitecaps won 4 of the last 5
3	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60	Inter Miami won 2 of the last 5
4	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58	FC Dallas won 2 of the last 5
5	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58	New England Revolution won 3 of the last 5
6	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55	Chicago Fire won 2 of the last 5
7	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54	Charlotte won 2 of the last 5
8	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54	St. Louis City won 1 of the last 5
9	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52	San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of the last 5
10	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51	Houston Dynamo won 1 of the last 5
11	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50	Philadelphia Union won 1 of the last 5
12	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47	Los Angeles FC won 1 of the last 5
13	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47	Columbus Crew won 5 of the last 5
14	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46	Portland Timbers won 4 of the last 5
15	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46	Seattle Sounders won 1 of the last 5
16	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46	FC Cincinnati won 3 of the last 5
17	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46	Orlando City SC won 2 of the last 5
18	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45	Real Salt Lake won 4 of the last 5
19	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44	Minnesota United FC won 4 of the last 5
20	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44	Los Angeles Galaxy won 2 of the last 5
21	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43	Colorado Rapids won 1 of the last 5
22	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42	New York City FC won 2 of the last 5
23	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42	New York Red Bulls won 2 of the last 5
24	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39	Toronto FC won 2 of the last 5
25	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38	San Diego won 1 of the last 5
26	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34	Austin won 1 of the last 5
27	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33	Atlanta United FC won 1 of the last 5
28	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33	DC United won 0 of the last 5
29	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26	CF Montreal won 0 of the last 5
30	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26	Sporting Kansas City won 1 of the last 5