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Championship predictions: matchweek 11 (16–17 October 2026)

Every Championship match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 11: twelve matches, played across 16–17 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Southampton, 55% to beat Bolton at home; the most evenly balanced game is Watford v Charlton (Watford 35%, draw 29%, Charlton 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Norwich v Portsmouth, at 3.56; the tightest looks West Brom v Blackburn, at 2.32.

Going into the round, Swansea lead on 23 points, two points clear of Middlesbrough, with Southampton third on 20. The bottom three are Watford (8), Derby (6), Preston (4).

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.92 goals a game over 119 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 63% of them and both sides scoring in 66%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Burnley v WolvesFri 16 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Burnley 30%, the draw 25% and Wolves 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Wolves to win at 45%. Burnley are 21st on 8 points from 10; Wolves are 10th on 14 points from 9. Burnley have won one of their last five; Wolves have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Middlesbrough v CardiffSat 17 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Middlesbrough 44%, the draw 24% and Cardiff 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 83%. Middlesbrough are 2nd on 21 points from 10; Cardiff are 19th on 10 points from 10. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Cardiff have won two of their last five.

Millwall v LincolnSat 17 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Millwall 32%, the draw 27% and Lincoln 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Lincoln to win at 40%. Millwall are 11th on 14 points from 10; Lincoln are 18th on 11 points from 10. Millwall have won one of their last five; Lincoln have won two of their last five.

Watford v CharltonSat 17 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Watford 35%, the draw 29% and Charlton 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Watford are 22nd on 8 points from 10; Charlton are 13th on 14 points from 10. Watford have won one of their last five; Charlton are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Birmingham v QPRSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Birmingham 39%, the draw 28% and QPR 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Birmingham to win at 39%. Birmingham are 5th on 17 points from 10; QPR are 6th on 17 points from 10. Birmingham have won three of their last five; QPR are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Birmingham wins, draws and QPR wins.

Bristol City v Sheffield UtdSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Bristol City 35%, the draw 25% and Sheffield Utd 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Bristol City are 12th on 14 points from 10; Sheffield Utd are 15th on 12 points from 10. Bristol City have won one of their last five; Sheffield Utd have won two of their last five. Bristol City have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Derby v Stoke CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Derby 41%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Derby to win at 41%. Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 10; Stoke City are 8th on 16 points from 10. Derby are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Stoke City have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Derby wins, draws and Stoke City wins.

Norwich v PortsmouthSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Norwich 54%, the draw 22% and Portsmouth 25%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Norwich to win at 54%. Norwich are 20th on 9 points from 10; Portsmouth are 16th on 11 points from 9. Norwich have won one of their last five; Portsmouth have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Southampton v BoltonSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Southampton 55%, the draw 21% and Bolton 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Southampton to win at 55%. Southampton are 3rd on 20 points from 10; Bolton are 14th on 13 points from 10. Southampton have won four of their last five; Bolton have won three of their last five.

Swansea v West HamSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Swansea 35%, the draw 25% and West Ham 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Swansea are 1st on 23 points from 10; West Ham are 4th on 19 points from 10. Swansea have won four of their last five; West Ham are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

West Brom v BlackburnSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes West Brom 41%, the draw 29% and Blackburn 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. West Brom are 7th on 17 points from 10; Blackburn are 9th on 15 points from 10. West Brom have won two of their last five; Blackburn have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Wrexham v PrestonSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Wrexham 53%, the draw 24% and Preston 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Wrexham to win at 53%. Wrexham are 17th on 11 points from 10; Preston are 24th on 4 points from 10. Wrexham have won one of their last five; Preston are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). Wrexham have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published eight picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.