Derby v 
Stoke City
Match statistics
| Derby | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 368 | Passes | 323 |
| 53% | Possession % | 47% |
| 1.07 | xG | 0.62 |
- Over 1.5
- 75%
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- Over 3.5
- 27%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Derby 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.42 – 1.23
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Derby -0.25
Why this price?
Back Derby -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — Derby must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.03. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 8.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.73 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Derby 1.42, Stoke City 1.23.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25.3% | 3.96 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -0.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -1.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.32 Betano | 75.8% | -3.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | 1.75 William Hill | 57.1% | -2.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.8% | 2.18 | 2.05 BetVictor | 48.8% | -3.0 |
| Match result | Derby | 40.7% | 2.45 | 2.95 Dafabet | 33.9% | +6.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.2% | 3.67 | 3.45 Dafabet | 29.0% | -1.8 |
| Match result | Stoke City | 32.0% | 3.12 | 2.75 Dafabet | 36.4% | -4.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.33 Betano | 75.2% | -0.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Derby favoured against Stoke City
Our model makes Derby 41% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 32%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Derby against 1.23 for Stoke City — a slight edge to Derby on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Derby | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 2-4-9 | W-D-L | 9-2-4 |
| 0.67 | Pts / game | 1.93 |
| 0.93 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 60% | BTTS | 67% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 1-2-5 | Home record | 4-1-2 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 5-1-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Derby · Stoke City
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.3 | Shots | 10.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 2.13 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 45 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.06 | xG | 0.94 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 15.4 | Shots | 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 2.13 |
| 8.6 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 55 | Possession % | 52 |
| 2.04 | xG | 1.33 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Derby | Metric | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 5.00 (better) |
| 12.00 | Total shots | 13.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 5.80 |
| 51.4 (better) | Possession % | 48.4 |
| 400 (better) | Passes | 391 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.60 (better) | Fouls | 14.80 |
| 3.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Derby wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Stoke City wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Derby v Stoke City0–12026-10-17
- Derby v Stoke City2–02026-04-06
- Stoke City v Derby3–12025-08-09
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |