Swansea v West Ham

7th0–19th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Swansea		West Ham
11	Shots	9
0	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	1
9	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
621	Passes	283
69%	Possession %	31%
1.08	xG	1.21

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: West Ham 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.57

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

West Ham +0.25

1.88Bet365 · fair 1.69 · qualifies at 1.74+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back West Ham +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.88 with Bet365 — West Ham starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 59%; we judge it at 59%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.69. The offered 1.88 implies only 53%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Swansea 1.47, West Ham 1.57.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Swansea	35.1%	2.85	3.30 William Hill	30.3%	+4.8
Match result	Draw	25.2%	3.97	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.1
Match result	West Ham	39.7%	2.52	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.2%	1.23	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.8%	5.31	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.5%	1.71	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+2.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.5%	2.41	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-2.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.1%	2.77	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.9%	1.56	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.5%	1.63	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.5%	2.60	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-3.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Swansea v West Ham: too close to call

Our model makes Swansea 35% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and West Ham at 40%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Swansea against 1.57 for West Ham — a slight edge to West Ham on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Swansea and West Ham
Swansea		West Ham
15	Played	15
8-2-5	W-D-L	6-5-4
1.73	Pts / game	1.53
1.47	Goals for / game	2.47
1.20	Goals against / game	1.53
67%	Over 2.5	80%
47%	BTTS	73%
40%	Clean sheets	27%
27%	Failed to score	0%
4-2-1	Home record	3-1-3
4-0-4	Away record	3-4-1
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Swansea · West Ham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	18.5
4.0	Shots on target	7.3
3.9	Corners	8.0
1.27	Cards	2.50
10.4	Fouls	12.1
58	Possession %	60
1.45	xG	1.80
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	10.1
4.6	Shots on target	3.4
4.9	Corners	4.1
1.88	Cards	1.63
10.1	Fouls	10.4
42	Possession %	41
1.65	xG	1.42
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Swansea	Metric	West Ham
1.60	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.64	Expected goals (xG)	2.13 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
11.40	Total shots	13.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	5.40 (better)
59.4 (better)	Possession %	54.8
571 (better)	Passes	486
	Tackles
8.80 (better)	Fouls	11.20
2.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Swansea wins: 0
Draws: 0
West Ham wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Swansea v West Ham0–12026-10-17

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5