Norwich v 
Portsmouth
Match statistics
| Norwich | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 5 |
| 403 | Passes | 414 |
| 55% | Possession % | 45% |
| 0.37 | xG | 1.25 |
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 48%
- Both score
- 67%
- Model pick
- Norwich 54%
- Likely score
- 2-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 2.14 – 1.42
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.62 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.40. The offered 2.62 implies only 38%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Norwich 2.14, Portsmouth 1.42.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Norwich | 53.7% | 1.86 | 1.83 William Hill | 54.6% | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.6% | 4.63 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -2.8 |
| Match result | Portsmouth | 24.7% | 4.04 | 4.90 Dafabet | 20.4% | +4.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | 1.25 Betano | 80.0% | +7.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.5% | 7.98 | 4.60 BetVictor | 21.7% | -9.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +11.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 31.0% | 3.23 | 2.35 Betano | 42.6% | -11.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +12.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -16.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 67.3% | 1.49 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | +9.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 32.7% | 3.06 | 2.27 Betano | 44.1% | -11.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Norwich favoured against Portsmouth
Our model makes Norwich 54% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 22% and Portsmouth at 25%. The goal projection is 2.14 for Norwich against 1.42 for Portsmouth — a substantial edge to Norwich on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 9%
- 1-1 9%
- 3-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Norwich | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 7-0-8 | W-D-L | 6-4-5 |
| 1.40 | Pts / game | 1.47 |
| 2.13 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 80% | Over 2.5 | 53% |
| 60% | BTTS | 60% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 3-0-4 | Home record | 4-1-3 |
| 4-0-4 | Away record | 2-3-2 |
| W4 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Norwich · Portsmouth
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.8 | Shots | 12.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.08 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 10.3 | Shots | 10.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.39 | xG | 1.14 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Norwich | Metric | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 3.00 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.63 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.60 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 12.20 | Total shots | 16.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.40 | Corners | 8.00 (better) |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 51.8 (better) |
| 413 (better) | Passes | 378 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.20 (better) | Fouls | 11.60 |
| 3.40 | Offsides | 2.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.75 | Yellow cards | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Norwich wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Portsmouth wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Norwich v Portsmouth0–12026-10-17
- Norwich v Portsmouth1–12026-04-03
- Portsmouth v Norwich1–22025-08-16
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |