Championship · Review

Championship matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Championship result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 10 (13–14 October 2026), is complete: twelve matches, 45 goals (3.75 a game), four home wins, one draw and seven away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in nine of the twelve and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Burnley v Charlton (2–2), which it had at 28%; the one it rated most likely was Cardiff's win in Cardiff v Watford (5–1), at 61%.

After the round, Swansea lead on 23 points, two points clear of Middlesbrough, with Southampton third on 20. The bottom three are Watford (8), Derby (6), Preston (4).

Match by match

Bristol City 0–1 BlackburnTue 13 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Bristol City 39%, the draw 29% and Blackburn 32%, with Bristol City favoured; it put Blackburn winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.04–0.21: Bristol City created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, came in. Pick published: Blackburn at 3.75 — won.

Burnley 2–2 CharltonTue 13 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Burnley 41%, the draw 28% and Charlton 31%, with Burnley favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.13–2.14: Charlton created the better chances. The headline call, Burnley to win at 41%, did not come in. Pick published: Burnley -0.75 at 1.80 — lost.

Cardiff 5–1 WatfordTue 13 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Cardiff 61%, the draw 22% and Watford 17%, so Cardiff winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.75–1.52: Cardiff created the better chances. The headline call, Cardiff to win at 61%, came in. Pick published: Watford +0.25 at 3.65 — lost.

Millwall 0–1 SwanseaTue 13 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Millwall 38%, the draw 28% and Swansea 33%, with Millwall favoured; it put Swansea winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.09–1.84: Swansea created the better chances. The headline call, Millwall to win at 38%, did not come in. Pick published: Millwall 0 at 2.05 — lost.

Wolves 1–3 BoltonTue 13 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Wolves 44%, the draw 25% and Bolton 32%, with Wolves favoured; it put Bolton winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.27–1.64: Wolves created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 82%, came in.

Wrexham 1–2 West BromTue 13 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Wrexham 39%, the draw 27% and West Brom 34%, with Wrexham favoured; it put West Brom winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.46–1.01: West Brom created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, came in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 4.00 — lost.

Birmingham 4–0 PrestonTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Birmingham 52%, the draw 25% and Preston 23%, so Birmingham winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.28–0.52: Birmingham created the better chances. The headline call, Birmingham to win at 52%, came in.

Stoke City 2–3 MiddlesbroughTue 13 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Stoke City 29%, the draw 26% and Middlesbrough 45%, so Middlesbrough winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.74–2.63: Middlesbrough created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Middlesbrough +0.25 at 1.68 (free pick) — won.

Norwich 0–1 SouthamptonWed 14 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Norwich 35%, the draw 21% and Southampton 44%, so Southampton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.26–2.16: Southampton created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: Southampton at 2.95 (free pick) — won.

Portsmouth 3–2 Sheffield UtdWed 14 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Portsmouth 34%, the draw 25% and Sheffield Utd 41%, with Sheffield Utd favoured; it put Portsmouth winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.01–1.80: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in. Picks published: Sheffield Utd at 2.92 — lost; Over 2.5 at 2.00 — won.

QPR 4–1 DerbyWed 14 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had QPR 42%, the draw 27% and Derby 31%, so QPR winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.05–1.02: QPR created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, came in. Pick published: QPR -0.5 at 1.78 — won.

Lincoln 0–6 West HamWed 14 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Lincoln 43%, the draw 24% and West Ham 34%, with Lincoln favoured; it put West Ham winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.39–3.23: West Ham created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in. Pick published: Lincoln +0.5 at 2.22 — lost.

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.92 goals a game over 119 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 63% of them and both sides scoring in 66%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.