QPR v Derby prediction, stats and odds

Advised bets

The forecast for this fixture is published at least 24 hours before kick-off.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Not published yet.

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

This season

Season records for QPR and Derby
QPR		Derby
8	Played	8
3-4-1	W-D-L	1-2-5
1.63	Pts / game	0.63
1.25	Goals for / game	0.88
0.88	Goals against / game	1.75
50%	Over 2.5	63%
63%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	13%
38%	Failed to score	38%
1-2-1	Home record	0-1-3
2-2-0	Away record	1-1-2
D3	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. QPR · Derby

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
33.0	Shots	17.0
7.0	Shots on target	6.0
10.0	Corners	6.0
3.00	Cards	2.00
8.0	Fouls	12.0
61	Possession %	53
2.54	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	6.0
3.0	Shots on target	2.0
3.0	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	4.00
13.0	Fouls	9.0
39	Possession %	47
1.50	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches, captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
QPR	Metric	Derby
	Goals scored
	Goals conceded
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

QPR wins: 0
Draws: 0
Derby wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

QPR v Derby2–32026-04-25
Derby v QPR1–02025-10-25

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Swansea	8	5	2	1	+7	17	Swansea won 3 of the last 5
2	West Ham	8	4	3	1	+11	15	West Ham won 4 of the last 5
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	+4	15	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
4	Southampton	8	4	2	2	+9	14	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	7	4	2	1	+5	14	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+2	14	West Brom won 2 of the last 5
7	QPR	8	3	4	1	+3	13	QPR won 1 of the last 5
8	Stoke City	8	4	1	3	+1	13	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
9	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	-1	13	Bristol City won 3 of the last 5
10	Charlton	8	3	3	2	-3	12	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
11	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	+1	11	Birmingham won 1 of the last 5
12	Millwall	8	3	2	3	0	11	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
13	Lincoln	8	3	2	3	-1	11	Lincoln won 2 of the last 5
14	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	-3	10	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	-4	10	Bolton won 2 of the last 5
16	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	0	9	Blackburn won 1 of the last 5
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	-1	9	Norwich won 2 of the last 5
18	Sheffield Utd	8	2	3	3	-2	9	Sheffield Utd won 2 of the last 5
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	-1	8	Portsmouth won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	-3	8	Watford won 1 of the last 5
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	-2	7	Cardiff won 1 of the last 5
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	-7	5	Derby won 1 of the last 5
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	-7	4	Preston won 1 of the last 5
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-8	4	Burnley won 0 of the last 5