Wolves v Bolton

5th1–318th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wolves		Bolton
19	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	6
9	Corners	3
11	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	1
515	Passes	342
62%	Possession %	38%
2.27	xG	1.64

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Wolves 44%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.68 – 1.41

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.6%	1.60	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.1%	1.61	1.88 Betano	53.2%	+8.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.9%	2.64	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-9.8
Match result	Wolves	43.5%	2.30	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-26.9
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.05	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+5.5
Match result	Bolton	31.8%	3.15	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+19.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.0%	1.22	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.0%	5.56	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.8%	1.67	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-0.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.2%	2.49	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.4%	2.67	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Wolves favoured against Bolton

Our model makes Wolves 44% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Bolton at 32%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Wolves against 1.41 for Bolton — a clear edge to Wolves on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for Wolves and Bolton
Wolves		Bolton
15	Played	15
8-4-3	W-D-L	5-2-8
1.87	Pts / game	1.13
1.73	Goals for / game	1.33
1.20	Goals against / game	1.93
60%	Over 2.5	67%
67%	BTTS	60%
27%	Clean sheets	27%
7%	Failed to score	27%
4-2-1	Home record	2-0-5
4-2-2	Away record	3-2-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wolves · Bolton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.4	Shots	15.3
4.6	Shots on target	4.8
7.1	Corners	5.0
2.44	Cards	1.71
12.8	Fouls	9.9
54	Possession %	50
1.63	xG	1.47
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.1	Shots	15.0
3.8	Shots on target	5.1
3.3	Corners	5.8
2.33	Cards	1.43
10.7	Fouls	9.5
46	Possession %	50
0.96	xG	1.96
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wolves	Metric	Bolton
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.73 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.20
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
13.20 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.40
50.0 (better)	Possession %	48.2
408 (better)	Passes	380
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	12.40 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wolves wins: 0
Draws: 0
Bolton wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Wolves v Bolton1–32026-10-13

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5