Predicted Edge

Norwich v Southampton

Norwich won 4 of the last 512th0–1Southampton won 2 of the last 54th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Norwich Southampton
12Shots15
4Shots on target4
5Corners3
15Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Offsides3
438Passes465
49%Possession %51%
1.26xG2.16
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
59%
Both score
76%
Model pick
Southampton 44%
Likely score
1-2 7%
Expected goals
1.96 – 2.17

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Southampton

2.95Dafabet · fair 2.69 · qualifies at 2.77+ · 1.23u
Why this price?

Back Southampton to win at 2.95 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.69. The offered 2.95 implies only 34%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.23 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Norwich 1.96, Southampton 2.17.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsUnder 3.540.8%2.451.60 Betano62.5%-21.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes76.5%1.311.50 Bet36566.7%+9.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No23.5%4.252.75 BetVictor36.4%-12.8
Match resultNorwich35.5%2.822.50 Bet36540.0%-4.5
Match resultDraw20.9%4.783.90 Betfair25.6%-4.7
Match resultSouthampton43.6%2.292.90 Bet36534.5%+9.1
Total goalsOver 1.592.1%1.091.20 Betano83.3%+8.8
Total goalsUnder 1.57.9%12.685.50 Bet36518.2%-10.3
Total goalsOver 2.578.1%1.281.62 Betano61.7%+16.4
Total goalsUnder 2.521.9%4.562.45 Betfair40.8%-18.9
Total goalsOver 3.559.2%1.692.47 Betano40.5%+18.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Southampton favoured against Norwich

Our model makes Norwich 35% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 21% and Southampton at 44%. The goal projection is 1.96 for Norwich against 2.17 for Southampton — a slight edge to Southampton on expected output. A combined 4.13 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 78% and both teams to score at 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-2 7%
2-2 7%
1-1 7%
2-1 7%
1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Norwich and Southampton
Norwich Southampton
15Played15
7-0-8W-D-L8-4-3
1.40Pts / game1.87
2.13Goals for / game1.93
1.60Goals against / game1.00
80%Over 2.553%
60%BTTS73%
13%Clean sheets20%
27%Failed to score13%
3-0-4Home record6-1-0
4-0-4Away record2-3-3
W4StreakL1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Norwich · Southampton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8Shots15.4
5.0Shots on target5.4
4.5Corners5.3
1.29Cards1.89
10.0Fouls8.1
54Possession %57
1.35xG1.67
8 matchessample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.3Shots15.3
4.1Shots on target4.3
3.3Corners4.8
1.57Cards2.63
11.0Fouls13.5
47Possession %43
1.39xG1.21
8 matchessample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
NorwichMetricSouthampton
2.20 (better)Goals scored2.00
3.00Goals conceded1.20 (better)
1.63 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.40
Big chances
4.60Shots on target4.80 (better)
12.20Total shots15.00 (better)
Touches in opp. box
4.40Corners5.00 (better)
50.0Possession %58.6 (better)
413Passes533 (better)
Tackles
10.20Fouls8.20 (better)
3.40Offsides3.25 (better)
Throw-ins
2.75Yellow cards1.20 (better)
0.00Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Norwich wins
1
Draws
0
Southampton wins
3
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
25%
Championship table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Birmingham15852+1429Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2Middlesbrough15852+1129Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3Stoke City15924+629Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4Southampton15843+1428Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5Wolves15843+828Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6West Brom15843+828West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7Swansea15825+426Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8QPR15663+624QPR won 2 of the last 5
9West Ham15654+1423West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10Sheffield Utd15645+222Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11Portsmouth15645+222Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12Norwich15708+821Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13Blackburn15636-121Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14Cardiff15465018Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15Wrexham15465-218Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16Millwall15537-418Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17Bristol City15537-818Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18Bolton15528-917Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19Charlton15456-1017Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20Watford15438-1015Watford won 2 of the last 5
21Lincoln15438-1115Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22Burnley15177-910Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23Derby15249-1610Derby won 1 of the last 5
24Preston152211-178Preston won 1 of the last 5