Stoke City v 
Middlesbrough
Match statistics
| Stoke City | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 297 | Passes | 594 |
| 34% | Possession % | 66% |
| 0.74 | xG | 2.63 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Middlesbrough 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.21 – 1.56
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Middlesbrough +0.25
Why this price?
Back Middlesbrough +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — Middlesbrough starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Stoke City 1.21, Middlesbrough 1.56.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Stoke City | 29.0% | 3.45 | 3.80 Bet365 | 26.3% | +2.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.85 Dafabet | 26.0% | +0.2 |
| Match result | Middlesbrough | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.05 Dafabet | 48.8% | -3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.0% | 4.35 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | -0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | +2.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -3.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +3.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -3.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +1.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Middlesbrough favoured against Stoke City
Our model makes Stoke City 29% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Middlesbrough at 45%. The goal projection is 1.21 for Stoke City against 1.56 for Middlesbrough — a clear edge to Middlesbrough on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Stoke City | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 9-2-4 | W-D-L | 8-5-2 |
| 1.93 | Pts / game | 1.93 |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.27 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 67% | BTTS | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 4-1-2 | Home record | 5-2-0 |
| 5-1-2 | Away record | 3-3-2 |
| W3 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Stoke City · Middlesbrough
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.6 | Shots | 20.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 6.9 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 1.11 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 48 | Possession % | 62 |
| 0.94 | xG | 2.14 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 13.5 | Shots | 10.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 2.7 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.13 | Cards | 1.59 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 10.9 |
| 52 | Possession % | 38 |
| 1.33 | xG | 0.94 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Stoke City | Metric | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.14 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 5.40 (better) |
| 13.20 | Total shots | 17.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 | Corners | 5.80 |
| 48.4 | Possession % | 57.8 (better) |
| 391 | Passes | 504 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.80 | Fouls | 9.20 (better) |
| 3.20 | Offsides | 2.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Stoke City wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Middlesbrough wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough2–32026-10-13
- Stoke City v Middlesbrough1–22026-01-21
- Middlesbrough v Stoke City0–02025-09-30
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |