Portsmouth v 
Sheffield Utd
Match statistics
| Portsmouth | Sheffield Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 479 | Passes | 232 |
| 67% | Possession % | 33% |
| 2.01 | xG | 1.80 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Sheffield Utd 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.48 – 1.66
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Sheffield Utd
Why this price?
Back Sheffield Utd to win at 2.92 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.73. The offered 2.92 implies only 34%, so the price is 6.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.89 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Portsmouth 1.48, Sheffield Utd 1.66.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Over 2.5
Why this price?
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.00 with Bet365 — 3 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.87. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 6.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.68 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Portsmouth 1.48, Sheffield Utd 1.66.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Portsmouth | 33.9% | 2.95 | 2.40 Dafabet | 41.7% | -7.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -3.9 |
| Match result | Sheffield Utd | 41.5% | 2.41 | 3.45 Betano | 29.0% | +12.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.33 Betano | 75.2% | +7.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.4% | 5.74 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | -9.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +10.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -13.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +8.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.36 Betano | 73.5% | -11.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.75 William Hill | 57.1% | +5.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.0% | 2.71 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -9.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sheffield Utd favoured against Portsmouth
Our model makes Portsmouth 34% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Sheffield Utd at 41%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Portsmouth against 1.66 for Sheffield Utd — a slight edge to Sheffield Utd on expected output. A combined 3.14 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
This season
| Portsmouth | Sheffield Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-4-5 | W-D-L | 6-4-5 |
| 1.47 | Pts / game | 1.47 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.27 |
| 53% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 60% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 4-1-3 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 2-3-2 | Away record | 3-2-3 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Portsmouth · Sheffield Utd
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.4 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 2.02 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 49 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.08 | xG | 1.35 |
| 9 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 10.1 | Shots | 11.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 3.1 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 2.52 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 14.1 |
| 51 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.14 | xG | 1.07 |
| 9 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Portsmouth | Metric | Sheffield Utd |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.26 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.56 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 (better) | Shots on target | 3.40 |
| 16.20 (better) | Total shots | 8.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Corners | 3.20 |
| 51.8 (better) | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 378 | Passes | 384 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.60 (better) | Fouls | 13.00 |
| 2.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Portsmouth wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Sheffield Utd wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd3–22026-10-14
- Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd0–12026-02-14
- Sheffield Utd v Portsmouth3–02025-11-26
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |