Burnley v 
Charlton
Match statistics
| Burnley | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 376 | Passes | 432 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| 1.13 | xG | 2.14 |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Burnley 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.36 – 1.16
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Burnley -0.75
Why this price?
Back Burnley -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.80 with Bet365 — Burnley must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 78%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.65. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 8.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Burnley 1.36, Charlton 1.16.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Burnley | 41.0% | 2.44 | 1.68 Dafabet | 59.5% | -18.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.0% | 3.57 | 4.10 Dafabet | 24.4% | +3.6 |
| Match result | Charlton | 31.1% | 3.22 | 5.70 Betano | 17.5% | +13.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.29 BetVictor | 77.5% | -5.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -6.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.6% | 4.06 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | -5.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | +3.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.90 Betfair | 52.6% | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.4% | 2.07 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | -1.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Burnley favoured against Charlton
Our model makes Burnley 41% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 28% and Charlton at 31%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Burnley against 1.16 for Charlton — a slight edge to Burnley on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-0 9%
- 0-1 9%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Burnley | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 1-7-7 | W-D-L | 4-5-6 |
| 0.67 | Pts / game | 1.13 |
| 1.47 | Goals for / game | 0.87 |
| 2.07 | Goals against / game | 1.53 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 53% |
| 87% | BTTS | 53% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 0-5-2 | Home record | 3-3-2 |
| 1-2-5 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Burnley · Charlton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.6 | Shots | 9.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 2.63 |
| 9.0 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 44 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.53 | xG | 1.26 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 16.4 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.38 | Cards | 2.13 |
| 9.1 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.94 | xG | 1.65 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Burnley | Metric | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 0.92 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.71 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 (better) | Shots on target | 2.00 |
| 12.40 (better) | Total shots | 8.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.80 (better) | Corners | 3.80 |
| 48.2 (better) | Possession % | 36.0 |
| 444 (better) | Passes | 302 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 12.40 |
| 2.80 | Offsides | 2.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.80 (better) |
| Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Burnley wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Charlton wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Burnley v Charlton2–22026-10-13
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |