Wrexham v 
West Brom
Match statistics
| Wrexham | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 394 | Passes | 546 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 0.46 | xG | 1.01 |
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Over 3.5
- 28%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Wrexham 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.40 – 1.29
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 4.00 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 27%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.64. The offered 4.00 implies only 25%, so the price is 9.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.82 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Wrexham 1.40, West Brom 1.29.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw | 27.0% | 3.70 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | -2.4 |
| Match result | West Brom | 34.0% | 2.94 | 3.30 Bet365 | 30.3% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | +2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 24.4% | 4.11 | 3.25 Betano | 30.8% | -6.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +2.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | -6.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 28.5% | 3.51 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.29 BetVictor | 77.5% | -6.0 |
| Match result | Wrexham | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | -3.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | -5.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wrexham v West Brom: too close to call
Our model makes Wrexham 39% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 27% and West Brom at 34%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Wrexham against 1.29 for West Brom — a slight edge to Wrexham on expected output. A combined 2.70 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Wrexham | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-6-5 | W-D-L | 8-4-3 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.87 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 1.53 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 47% |
| 60% | BTTS | 67% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 3-3-2 | Home record | 4-3-1 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 4-1-2 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wrexham · West Brom
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.6 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 58 |
| 1.18 | xG | 2.17 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 14.1 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 42 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.26 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Wrexham | Metric | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 0.76 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.72 |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.80 | Shots on target | 3.00 (better) |
| 9.60 (better) | Total shots | 9.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.20 | Corners | 5.60 (better) |
| 46.6 | Possession % | 54.8 (better) |
| 466 | Passes | 498 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 (better) | Fouls | 11.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.60 |
| Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Wrexham wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- West Brom wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Wrexham v West Brom1–22026-10-13
- West Brom v Wrexham2–22026-04-03
- Wrexham v West Brom2–32025-08-16
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |