Burnley v Wolves

22nd1–25th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Burnley		Wolves
15	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	8
3	Corners	6
13	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
7	Offsides	0
425	Passes	482
47%	Possession %	53%
1.07	xG	2.02

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Wolves 45%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.66

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Burnley -0.5

3.00BetVictor · fair 2.75 · qualifies at 2.83+ · 1.14u

Why this price?

Back Burnley -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with BetVictor — Burnley must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 30% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.75. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Burnley 1.31, Wolves 1.66.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.0%	2.33	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-5.8
Match result	Burnley	29.7%	3.36	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-1.5
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.98	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	-2.6
Match result	Wolves	45.1%	2.22	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.2%	1.25	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.8%	5.05	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.0%	1.75	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.6%	2.89	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+2.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.4%	1.53	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.7%	1.68	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.3%	2.48	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Wolves favoured against Burnley

Our model makes Burnley 30% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Wolves at 45%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Burnley against 1.66 for Wolves — a clear edge to Wolves on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 7%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Burnley and Wolves
Burnley		Wolves
15	Played	15
1-7-7	W-D-L	8-4-3
0.67	Pts / game	1.87
1.47	Goals for / game	1.73
2.07	Goals against / game	1.20
67%	Over 2.5	60%
87%	BTTS	67%
13%	Clean sheets	27%
7%	Failed to score	7%
0-5-2	Home record	4-2-1
1-2-5	Away record	4-2-2
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Burnley · Wolves

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	17.4
4.4	Shots on target	4.6
4.1	Corners	7.1
1.88	Cards	2.44
9.0	Fouls	12.8
44	Possession %	54
1.53	xG	1.63
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.4	Shots	9.1
6.0	Shots on target	3.8
5.3	Corners	3.3
1.38	Cards	2.33
9.1	Fouls	10.7
56	Possession %	46
1.94	xG	0.96
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burnley	Metric	Wolves
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.92	Expected goals (xG)	1.73 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	3.60 (better)
12.40	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	6.00 (better)
48.2	Possession %	50.0 (better)
444 (better)	Passes	408
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	13.40
2.80	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Burnley wins: 1
Draws: 1
Wolves wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Burnley v Wolves1–22026-10-16
Burnley v Wolves1–12026-05-24
Wolves v Burnley2–32025-10-26

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5