Bristol City won 1 of the last 5LLWDL17th0–1Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5LWWDW10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Bristol City
Sheffield Utd
7
Shots
16
1
Shots on target
2
3
Corners
5
16
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
411
Passes
370
53%
Possession %
47%
0.58
xG
1.23
35%
25%
39%
1 · Bristol CityXSheffield Utd · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Sheffield Utd 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.54
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Bristol City
35.4%
2.83
2.15 Dafabet
46.5%
-11.1
Match result
Draw
25.4%
3.94
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-1.6
Match result
Sheffield Utd
39.2%
2.55
3.70 Bet365
27.0%
+12.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.6%
1.24
1.29 BetVictor
77.5%
+3.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.4%
5.16
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
-7.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.6%
1.74
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+5.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.4%
2.36
1.95 Betano
51.3%
-8.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.2%
2.84
3.20 Bet365
31.3%
+4.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.8%
1.54
1.39 Betano
71.9%
-7.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.8%
1.64
1.75 William Hill
57.1%
+3.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.2%
2.55
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-7.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bristol City v Sheffield Utd: too close to call
Our model makes Bristol City 35% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Sheffield Utd at 39%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Bristol City against 1.54 for Sheffield Utd — almost nothing to Sheffield Utd on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bristol City
Metric
Sheffield Utd
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.60 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.56
—
Big chances *
—
5.25 (better)
Shots on target
3.40
17.75 (better)
Total shots
8.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
3.20
48.8 (better)
Possession %
44.8
402 (better)
Passes
384
—
Tackles
—
11.25 (better)
Fouls
13.00
1.67 (better)
Offsides
3.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.20
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Bristol City v 
Sheffield Utd