Southampton v Bolton

4th0–018th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Southampton		Bolton
14	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	3
8	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
10	Offsides	0
609	Passes	368
62%	Possession %	38%
1.91	xG	1.24

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Southampton 55%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.16 – 1.39

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Southampton	54.8%	1.82	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-11.0
Match result	Draw	21.4%	4.67	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	+1.0
Match result	Bolton	23.8%	4.20	6.90 Betano	14.5%	+9.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.4%	1.15	1.15 Betano	87.0%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.6%	7.91	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.8%	1.45	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.2%	3.21	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.4%	2.11	2.15 Betano	46.5%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.6%	1.90	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.8%	1.50	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.2%	3.01	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-7.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Southampton favoured against Bolton

Our model makes Southampton 55% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 21% and Bolton at 24%. The goal projection is 2.16 for Southampton against 1.39 for Bolton — a substantial edge to Southampton on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Southampton and Bolton
Southampton		Bolton
15	Played	15
8-4-3	W-D-L	5-2-8
1.87	Pts / game	1.13
1.93	Goals for / game	1.33
1.00	Goals against / game	1.93
53%	Over 2.5	67%
73%	BTTS	60%
20%	Clean sheets	27%
13%	Failed to score	27%
6-1-0	Home record	2-0-5
2-3-3	Away record	3-2-3
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Southampton · Bolton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	15.3
5.4	Shots on target	4.8
5.3	Corners	5.0
1.89	Cards	1.71
8.1	Fouls	9.9
57	Possession %	50
1.67	xG	1.47
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	15.0
4.3	Shots on target	5.1
4.8	Corners	5.8
2.63	Cards	1.43
13.5	Fouls	9.5
43	Possession %	50
1.21	xG	1.96
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Southampton	Metric	Bolton
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.20
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
15.00 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.40
58.6 (better)	Possession %	48.2
533 (better)	Passes	380
	Tackles
8.20 (better)	Fouls	12.40
3.25	Offsides	2.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Southampton wins: 0
Draws: 1
Bolton wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Southampton v Bolton0–02026-10-17

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5