Watford v 
Charlton
Match statistics
| Watford | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 360 | Passes | 359 |
| 51% | Possession % | 49% |
| 2.87 | xG | 1.31 |
- Over 1.5
- 69%
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- Over 3.5
- 21%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- Charlton 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.17 – 1.18
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Charlton
Why this price?
Back Charlton to win at 3.55 with Dafabet.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.30. The offered 3.55 implies only 28%, so the price is 7.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.74 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Watford 1.17, Charlton 1.18.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Watford | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | -4.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 29.3% | 3.41 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | +0.8 |
| Match result | Charlton | 35.5% | 2.82 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | +6.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.32 Betano | 75.8% | -7.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 31.3% | 3.19 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | +4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 1.95 Betano | 51.3% | -9.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +5.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 21.1% | 4.75 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.35 Betano | 74.1% | +4.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | -9.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 51.6% | 1.94 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +6.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Watford v Charlton: too close to call
Our model makes Watford 35% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 29% and Charlton at 36%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Watford against 1.18 for Charlton — almost nothing to Charlton on expected output. A combined 2.35 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 0-0 10%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Watford | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-3-8 | W-D-L | 4-5-6 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.13 |
| 0.87 | Goals for / game | 0.87 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.53 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 53% |
| 47% | BTTS | 53% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 4-2-2 | Home record | 3-3-2 |
| 0-1-6 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Watford · Charlton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.3 | Shots | 9.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.75 | Cards | 2.63 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 47 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.04 | xG | 1.26 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 17.4 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 2.13 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 54 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.85 | xG | 1.65 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Watford | Metric | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 0.86 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.71 |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.80 (better) | Shots on target | 2.00 |
| 10.20 (better) | Total shots | 8.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 | Corners | 3.80 |
| 51.0 (better) | Possession % | 36.0 |
| 437 (better) | Passes | 302 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 (better) | Fouls | 12.40 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.80 | Yellow cards | 1.80 (better) |
| Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Watford wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Charlton wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.67
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- Watford v Charlton2–02026-10-17
- Watford v Charlton1–12026-04-06
- Charlton v Watford1–02025-08-09
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |