Middlesbrough v Cardiff

2nd2–214th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Middlesbrough		Cardiff
36	Shots	7
12	Shots on target	3
11	Corners	4
9	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	4
492	Passes	380
57%	Possession %	43%
2.78	xG	0.91

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Middlesbrough 44%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Middlesbrough	43.9%	2.28	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	-20.7
Match result	Draw	24.3%	4.12	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+4.3
Match result	Cardiff	31.9%	3.14	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.3%	1.20	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.7%	5.99	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	+3.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.8%	1.62	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.2%	2.62	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	+7.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.6%	2.53	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-10.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.4%	1.66	1.93 Betano	51.8%	+8.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.7%	1.57	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.3%	2.75	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+1.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Middlesbrough favoured against Cardiff

Our model makes Middlesbrough 44% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 24% and Cardiff at 32%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Middlesbrough against 1.46 for Cardiff — a clear edge to Middlesbrough on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-2 7%

This season

Season records for Middlesbrough and Cardiff
Middlesbrough		Cardiff
15	Played	15
8-5-2	W-D-L	4-6-5
1.93	Pts / game	1.20
2.00	Goals for / game	1.80
1.27	Goals against / game	1.80
67%	Over 2.5	67%
67%	BTTS	73%
27%	Clean sheets	7%
13%	Failed to score	20%
5-2-0	Home record	4-4-0
3-3-2	Away record	0-2-5
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Middlesbrough · Cardiff

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.4	Shots	15.9
6.9	Shots on target	6.3
7.0	Corners	4.9
1.11	Cards	2.02
8.4	Fouls	9.1
62	Possession %	56
2.14	xG	2.21
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.6	Shots	15.8
2.7	Shots on target	6.4
3.8	Corners	5.3
1.59	Cards	2.50
10.9	Fouls	13.1
38	Possession %	45
0.94	xG	1.85
9 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Middlesbrough	Metric	Cardiff
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
2.14 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.86
	Big chances
5.40	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
17.20	Total shots	19.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.80	Corners	6.80 (better)
57.8	Possession %	63.8 (better)
504	Passes	521 (better)
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	10.40
2.20	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Middlesbrough wins: 0
Draws: 1
Cardiff wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Middlesbrough v Cardiff2–22026-10-17

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5