Millwall v Lincoln

16th2–221st

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Millwall		Lincoln
18	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
12	Corners	2
14	Fouls	10
6	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	6
391	Passes	179
70%	Possession %	30%
1.87	xG	0.75

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Lincoln 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.42

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.8%	1.83	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.2%	2.21	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-4.8
Match result	Millwall	32.4%	3.08	1.76 Dafabet	56.8%	-24.4
Match result	Draw	27.1%	3.69	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+2.1
Match result	Lincoln	40.5%	2.47	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+23.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.3%	1.33	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.7%	4.04	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.0%	2.00	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.0%	2.00	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+0.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.0%	3.57	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.0%	1.39	1.39 Betano	71.9%	+0.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lincoln favoured against Millwall

Our model makes Millwall 32% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 27% and Lincoln at 40%. The goal projection is 1.25 for Millwall against 1.42 for Lincoln — a slight edge to Lincoln on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Millwall and Lincoln
Millwall		Lincoln
15	Played	15
5-3-7	W-D-L	4-3-8
1.20	Pts / game	1.00
1.53	Goals for / game	1.00
1.80	Goals against / game	1.73
80%	Over 2.5	60%
47%	BTTS	53%
27%	Clean sheets	27%
27%	Failed to score	27%
3-2-2	Home record	1-2-4
2-1-5	Away record	3-1-4
L2	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Millwall · Lincoln

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	11.7
4.2	Shots on target	3.3
5.3	Corners	2.9
2.33	Cards	2.87
12.0	Fouls	12.3
48	Possession %	38
1.66	xG	1.19
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	16.8
4.3	Shots on target	5.3
6.2	Corners	6.7
2.25	Cards	2.78
10.6	Fouls	12.3
52	Possession %	62
1.45	xG	1.66
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Millwall	Metric	Lincoln
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
2.17 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.39
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
13.40 (better)	Total shots	10.40
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	2.60 (better)
37.0	Possession %	38.2 (better)
271	Passes	286 (better)
	Tackles
14.40	Fouls	12.40 (better)
3.20	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Millwall wins: 0
Draws: 1
Lincoln wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Millwall v Lincoln2–22026-10-17

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5