Birmingham v 
QPR
Match statistics
| Birmingham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 503 | Passes | 445 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.17 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Birmingham 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.35 – 1.23
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 3 of 5QPR
Why this price?
Back QPR to win at 3.65 with Dafabet.
Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.45. The offered 3.65 implies only 27%, so the price is 5.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.54 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Birmingham 1.35, QPR 1.23.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Birmingham | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.10 Dafabet | 47.6% | -8.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.7% | 3.60 | 3.70 Betfair | 27.0% | +0.7 |
| Match result | QPR | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3.90 Dafabet | 25.6% | +7.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +2.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.9% | 3.87 | 3.25 Betfair | 30.8% | -4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.38 Betano | 72.5% | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.73 William Hill | 57.8% | -4.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.1% | 2.13 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +0.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Birmingham v QPR: too close to call
Our model makes Birmingham 39% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 28% and QPR at 33%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Birmingham against 1.23 for QPR — a slight edge to Birmingham on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Birmingham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 8-5-2 | W-D-L | 6-6-3 |
| 1.93 | Pts / game | 1.60 |
| 1.87 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 0.93 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 73% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 4-4-0 | Home record | 4-3-1 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 2-3-2 |
| W3 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Birmingham · QPR
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.4 | Shots | 15.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.38 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 8.9 |
| 54 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.85 | xG | 1.82 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 12.3 | Shots | 11.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.66 | Cards | 2.13 |
| 10.1 | Fouls | 10.9 |
| 46 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.38 | xG | 1.03 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Birmingham | Metric | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.79 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 15.80 (better) | Total shots | 15.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.40 | Corners | 7.60 (better) |
| 45.6 | Possession % | 51.2 (better) |
| 319 | Passes | 461 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 | Fouls | 8.80 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.60 |
| Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Birmingham wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- QPR wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Birmingham v QPR3–02026-10-17
- Birmingham v QPR1–02026-03-11
- QPR v Birmingham2–12025-12-09
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |