Wrexham v 
Preston
Match statistics
| Wrexham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 467 | Passes | 298 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 1.97 | xG | 0.79 |
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Wrexham 53%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.85 – 1.14
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Wrexham -0.5
Why this price?
Back Wrexham -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.72 with Betano — Wrexham must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.54. The offered 1.72 implies only 58%, so the price is 12.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Wrexham 1.85, Preston 1.14.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Wrexham | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.73 William Hill | 57.8% | -4.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.8% | 4.20 | 4.00 Dafabet | 25.0% | -1.2 |
| Match result | Preston | 22.8% | 4.38 | 6.00 BetVictor | 16.7% | +6.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | +5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.5% | 5.12 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +7.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -6.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 35.0% | 2.85 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +6.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -6.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +7.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.1% | 2.37 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -6.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wrexham favoured against Preston
Our model makes Wrexham 53% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 24% and Preston at 23%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Wrexham against 1.14 for Preston — a substantial edge to Wrexham on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 1-2 6%
This season
| Wrexham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-6-5 | W-D-L | 2-2-11 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 0.53 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 0.87 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 3-3-2 | Home record | 2-1-5 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 0-1-6 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wrexham · Preston
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.6 | Shots | 10.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 1.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.13 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 47 | Possession % | 35 |
| 1.18 | xG | 0.97 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 14.1 | Shots | 19.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 1.38 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 65 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.98 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Wrexham | Metric | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 0.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.80 | Shots on target | 3.80 (better) |
| 9.60 | Total shots | 13.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.20 | Corners | 6.20 (better) |
| 46.6 (better) | Possession % | 43.0 |
| 466 (better) | Passes | 324 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 | Fouls | 10.60 (better) |
| 1.00 | Offsides | 0.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Wrexham wins
- 3
- Draws
- 1
- Preston wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.75
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 100%
- Wrexham v Preston4–12026-10-17
- Wrexham v Preston2–12025-12-29
- Preston v Wrexham1–12025-12-06
- Preston v Wrexham2–32025-08-26
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |