Liga Profesional Argentina · Review

Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura, round 16 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga Profesional Argentina result from Clausura, round 16 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 9 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 16 (5–8 November 2026), is complete: 15 matches, 34 goals (2.27 a game), seven home wins, five draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the 15 and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was Huracan's win in Argentinos JRS v Huracan (0–2), which it had at 22%; the one it rated most likely was Rosario Central's win in Rosario Central v Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (2–0), at 67%.

After the round, Rosario Central lead on 66 points, one point clear of Argentinos JRS, with Boca Juniors third on 64. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (23), Aldosivi (19), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (14).

Match by match

Aldosivi 0–2 River PlateThu 5 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Aldosivi 20%, the draw 27% and River Plate 53%, so River Plate winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.11–2.77: River Plate created the better chances. The headline call, River Plate to win at 53%, came in.

Gimnasia L.P. 2–1 Belgrano CordobaThu 5 Nov, 22:15

Before kick-off the model had Gimnasia L.P. 38%, the draw 30% and Belgrano Cordoba 32%, so Gimnasia L.P. winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.43–1.64: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 55%, did not come in.

Barracas Central 2–0 Racing ClubFri 6 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Barracas Central 35%, the draw 32% and Racing Club 32%, so Barracas Central winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 2.48–0.60: Barracas Central created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 60%, came in.

Independiente 2–1 Deportivo RiestraFri 6 Nov, 22:15

Before kick-off the model had Independiente 49%, the draw 31% and Deportivo Riestra 20%, so Independiente winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.14–1.39: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 64%, did not come in.

San Lorenzo 0–2 PlatenseFri 6 Nov, 22:15

Before kick-off the model had San Lorenzo 39%, the draw 33% and Platense 28%, with San Lorenzo favoured; it put Platense winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 0.77–1.39: Platense created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 63%, came in. Pick published: San Lorenzo -0.25 at 2.15 — lost.

Union Santa Fe 2–0 Velez SarsfieldFri 6 Nov, 22:15

Before kick-off the model had Union Santa Fe 29%, the draw 25% and Velez Sarsfield 45%, with Velez Sarsfield favoured; it put Union Santa Fe winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.94–0.50: Union Santa Fe created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

Banfield 2–2 Atletico TucumanSat 7 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Banfield 38%, the draw 29% and Atletico Tucuman 33%, with Banfield favoured; it put the draw at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.73–0.43: Banfield created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 59%, did not come in.

Tigre 1–0 Sarmiento JuninSat 7 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Tigre 43%, the draw 29% and Sarmiento Junin 29%, so Tigre winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.07–1.02: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, came in.

Gimnasia M. 1–1 Independ. RivadaviaSat 7 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Gimnasia M. 33%, the draw 27% and Independ. Rivadavia 40%, with Independ. Rivadavia favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.52–0.79: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, came in.

Talleres Cordoba 1–1 Estudiantes L.P.Sat 7 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Talleres Cordoba 29%, the draw 31% and Estudiantes L.P. 40%, with Estudiantes L.P. favoured; it put the draw at 31%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.14–0.31: Talleres Cordoba created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Talleres Cordoba -0.5 at 2.52 — lost.

Argentinos JRS 0–2 HuracanSat 7 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Argentinos JRS 46%, the draw 32% and Huracan 22%, with Argentinos JRS favoured; it put Huracan winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 0.80–1.78: Huracan created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 65%, came in.

Boca Juniors 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaSat 7 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Boca Juniors 53%, the draw 26% and Defensa Y Justicia 21%, so Boca Juniors winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 1-0, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.78–0.44: Boca Juniors created the better chances. The headline call, Boca Juniors to win at 53%, came in.

Rosario Central 2–0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoSat 7 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Rosario Central 67%, the draw 23% and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 11%, so Rosario Central winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.13–0.09: Rosario Central created the better chances. The headline call, Rosario Central to win at 67%, came in.

Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Newells Old BoysSun 8 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Instituto Cordoba 50%, the draw 28% and Newells Old Boys 22%, with Instituto Cordoba favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.48–1.04: Instituto Cordoba created the better chances. The headline call, Instituto Cordoba to win at 50%, did not come in.

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–1 LanusSun 8 Nov, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Central Cordoba de Santiago 23%, the draw 30% and Lanus 47%, with Lanus favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.47–1.88: Lanus created the better chances. The headline call, Lanus to win at 47%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.17 goals a game over 495 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 38% of them and both sides scoring in 48%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.