Liga Profesional Argentina · Preview

Liga Profesional Argentina predictions: Clausura, round 15 (30 October – 3 November 2026)

Every Liga Profesional Argentina match in Clausura, round 15 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 15: 15 matches, played across 30 October – 3 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Independ. Rivadavia, 52% to beat Banfield at home; the most evenly balanced game is Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba (Deportivo Riestra 31%, draw 35%, Talleres Cordoba 34%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Independ. Rivadavia v Banfield, at 2.97; the tightest looks Belgrano Cordoba v Barracas Central, at 1.71.

Going into the round, Rosario Central lead on 60 points, one point clear of River Plate, with Argentinos JRS third on 59. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (23), Aldosivi (19), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (14).

The numbers this season

Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.15 goals a game over 462 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 38% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto v Gimnasia L.P.Fri 30 Oct, 22:00

Our model makes Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 21%, the draw 28% and Gimnasia L.P. 52%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is Gimnasia L.P. to win at 52%. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are 30th on 14 points from 30; Gimnasia L.P. are 7th on 54 points from 32. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have won one of their last five; Gimnasia L.P. are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).

Huracan v TigreFri 30 Oct, 22:00

Our model makes Huracan 37%, the draw 33% and Tigre 30%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (16%), 1.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 38%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 62%. Huracan are 13th on 43 points from 32; Tigre are 23rd on 33 points from 30. Huracan have won two of their last five; Tigre are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Racing Club v AldosiviSat 31 Oct, 00:15

Our model makes Racing Club 51%, the draw 27% and Aldosivi 22%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (13%), 2.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Racing Club to win at 51%. Racing Club are 20th on 37 points from 32; Aldosivi are 29th on 19 points from 30. Racing Club have won two of their last five; Aldosivi have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Sarmiento Junin v Rosario CentralSat 31 Oct, 00:15

Our model makes Sarmiento Junin 28%, the draw 28% and Rosario Central 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Sarmiento Junin are 17th on 40 points from 30; Rosario Central are 1st on 60 points from 33. Sarmiento Junin have won one of their last five; Rosario Central are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Rosario Central have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Defensa Y Justicia v IndependienteSat 31 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Defensa Y Justicia 39%, the draw 28% and Independiente 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Defensa Y Justicia are 11th on 46 points from 30; Independiente are 15th on 43 points from 31. Defensa Y Justicia have won three of their last five; Independiente have won one of their last five.

Deportivo Riestra v Talleres CordobaSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Deportivo Riestra 31%, the draw 35% and Talleres Cordoba 34%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (18%), 1.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 34%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 66%. Deportivo Riestra are 28th on 23 points from 29; Talleres Cordoba are 22nd on 35 points from 31. Deportivo Riestra are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Talleres Cordoba are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Deportivo Riestra wins, draws and Talleres Cordoba wins.

Velez Sarsfield v San LorenzoSat 31 Oct, 22:15

Our model makes Velez Sarsfield 45%, the draw 33% and San Lorenzo 23%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (17%), 1.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 65%. Velez Sarsfield are 6th on 55 points from 31; San Lorenzo are 16th on 41 points from 31. Velez Sarsfield have won three of their last five; San Lorenzo have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Estudiantes L.P. v Instituto CordobaSun 1 Nov, 00:30

Our model makes Estudiantes L.P. 40%, the draw 32% and Instituto Cordoba 28%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 1.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 61%. Estudiantes L.P. are 12th on 45 points from 30; Instituto Cordoba are 9th on 50 points from 29. Estudiantes L.P. have won two of their last five; Instituto Cordoba are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Boca Juniors v River PlateSun 1 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Boca Juniors 42%, the draw 30% and River Plate 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Boca Juniors are 4th on 58 points from 31; River Plate are 2nd on 59 points from 34. Boca Juniors are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); River Plate have won three of their last five. Boca Juniors have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Belgrano Cordoba v Barracas CentralSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Our model makes Belgrano Cordoba 44%, the draw 34% and Barracas Central 22%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (19%), 1.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 32%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 68%. Belgrano Cordoba are 5th on 58 points from 34; Barracas Central are 14th on 43 points from 30. Belgrano Cordoba have won three of their last five; Barracas Central have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Newells Old Boys v Union Santa FeSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Our model makes Newells Old Boys 40%, the draw 27% and Union Santa Fe 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Newells Old Boys to win at 40%. Newells Old Boys are 21st on 36 points from 30; Union Santa Fe are 19th on 38 points from 31. Newells Old Boys have won two of their last five; Union Santa Fe are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Newells Old Boys wins, draws and Union Santa Fe wins.

Lanus v Gimnasia M.Sun 1 Nov, 23:45

Our model makes Lanus 45%, the draw 30% and Gimnasia M. 25%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (14%), 2.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 57%. Lanus are 10th on 48 points from 31; Gimnasia M. are 18th on 39 points from 30. Lanus are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Gimnasia M. have won one of their last five.

Platense v Central Cordoba de SantiagoMon 2 Nov, 22:00

Our model makes Platense 45%, the draw 29% and Central Cordoba de Santiago 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. Platense are 26th on 30 points from 30; Central Cordoba de Santiago are 27th on 26 points from 30. Platense have won one of their last five; Central Cordoba de Santiago are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

Atletico Tucuman v Argentinos JRSTue 3 Nov, 00:15

Our model makes Atletico Tucuman 27%, the draw 32% and Argentinos JRS 41%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 59%. Atletico Tucuman are 25th on 31 points from 30; Argentinos JRS are 3rd on 59 points from 32. Atletico Tucuman have won one of their last five; Argentinos JRS have won two of their last five.

Independ. Rivadavia v BanfieldTue 3 Nov, 00:15

Our model makes Independ. Rivadavia 52%, the draw 24% and Banfield 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 57%. Independ. Rivadavia are 8th on 53 points from 30; Banfield are 24th on 32 points from 30. Independ. Rivadavia have won two of their last five; Banfield have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published five picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.