Independ. Rivadavia v Banfield

7th3–125th

00:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Independ. Rivadavia		Banfield
12	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	4
10	Fouls	7
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
307	Passes	348
46%	Possession %	54%
0.64	xG	0.50

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Independ. Rivadavia 52%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.80 – 1.17

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Independ. Rivadavia -0.75

1.58Bet365 · fair 1.44 · qualifies at 1.49+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Independ. Rivadavia -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Bet365 — Independ. Rivadavia must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.44. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 9.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Independ. Rivadavia 1.80, Banfield 1.17.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Independ. Rivadavia	51.5%	1.94	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-10.2
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	4.15 Betano	24.1%	+0.1
Match result	Banfield	24.2%	4.13	6.30 Betano	15.9%	+8.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.2%	1.25	1.30 Betano	76.9%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.8%	5.04	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.0%	1.75	1.93 Betano	51.8%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.0%	2.33	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-8.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.6%	2.89	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.4%	1.53	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-8.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.1%	1.72	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.9%	2.39	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-11.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Independ. Rivadavia favoured against Banfield

Our model makes Independ. Rivadavia 52% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 24% and Banfield at 24%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Independ. Rivadavia against 1.17 for Banfield — a substantial edge to Independ. Rivadavia on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Independ. Rivadavia and Banfield
Independ. Rivadavia		Banfield
33	Played	32
16-9-8	W-D-L	8-9-15
1.73	Pts / game	1.03
1.55	Goals for / game	1.09
1.24	Goals against / game	1.38
55%	Over 2.5	47%
67%	BTTS	59%
21%	Clean sheets	19%
21%	Failed to score	28%
11-3-3	Home record	5-6-5
5-6-5	Away record	3-3-10
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Independ. Rivadavia · Banfield

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	14.3
3.9	Shots on target	2.7
4.0	Corners	4.8
2.71	Cards	2.00
11.1	Fouls	11.5
42	Possession %	42
0.72	xG	0.70
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.7	Shots	13.5
4.6	Shots on target	4.0
6.0	Corners	5.5
3.29	Cards	2.67
10.3	Fouls	9.8
58	Possession %	58
1.37	xG	1.29
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Independ. Rivadavia	Metric	Banfield
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
0.82	Expected goals (xG)	0.85 (better)
	Big chances
4.25 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
12.75	Total shots	13.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25 (better)	Corners	4.20
41.3 (better)	Possession %	36.4
330 (better)	Passes	282
	Tackles
10.50 (better)	Fouls	13.80
4.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Independ. Rivadavia wins: 1
Draws: 1
Banfield wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Independ. Rivadavia v Banfield3–12026-11-03
Banfield v Independ. Rivadavia0–02026-04-20
Independ. Rivadavia v Banfield1–22025-10-18

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5