Lanus v 
Gimnasia M.
Match statistics
| Lanus | Gimnasia M. | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 406 | Passes | 499 |
| 45% | Possession % | 55% |
| 1.20 | xG | 0.73 |
- Over 1.5
- 64%
- Over 2.5
- 36%
- Over 3.5
- 17%
- Both score
- 43%
- Model pick
- Lanus 45%
- Likely score
- 1-0 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.28 – 0.87
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lanus | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | -11.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.0% | 3.34 | 4.40 Betano | 22.7% | +7.2 |
| Match result | Gimnasia M. | 24.6% | 4.07 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +10.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -7.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 36.0% | 2.78 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +9.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | +12.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 17.2% | 5.83 | 3.80 BetVictor | 26.3% | -9.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | +9.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.15 William Hill | 46.5% | -3.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | +3.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lanus favoured against Gimnasia M.
Our model makes Lanus 46% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 30% and Gimnasia M. at 25%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Lanus against 0.87 for Gimnasia M. — a clear edge to Lanus on expected output. A combined 2.15 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 14%
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 12%
- 2-0 10%
- 0-1 9%
This season
| Lanus | Gimnasia M. | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Played | 32 |
| 13-11-9 | W-D-L | 11-8-13 |
| 1.52 | Pts / game | 1.28 |
| 1.12 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 0.88 | Goals against / game | 1.22 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 38% |
| 39% | BTTS | 44% |
| 42% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 34% |
| 7-6-3 | Home record | 8-4-4 |
| 6-5-6 | Away record | 3-4-9 |
| D3 | Streak | D2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lanus · Gimnasia M.
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.6 | Shots | 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 50 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.35 | xG | 0.78 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 13.6 | Shots | 16.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 6.3 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 52 |
| 0.86 | xG | 1.68 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Lanus | Metric | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 1.08 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 (better) | Shots on target | 2.20 |
| 10.40 | Total shots | 12.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.20 (better) | Corners | 2.80 |
| 49.0 | Possession % | 49.4 (better) |
| 413 (better) | Passes | 352 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 0.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.40 | Yellow cards | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Lanus wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Gimnasia M. wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 50%
- Lanus v Gimnasia M.1–12026-11-01
- Gimnasia M. v Lanus1–02026-04-21
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | +19 | 66 | Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | +12 | 65 | Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 33 | 17 | 13 | 3 | +23 | 64 | Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | River Plate | 36 | 19 | 5 | 12 | +19 | 62 | River Plate won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +4 | 60 | Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Belgrano Cordoba | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | +10 | 59 | Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Independ. Rivadavia | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 57 | Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Velez Sarsfield | 33 | 14 | 14 | 5 | +13 | 56 | Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | +11 | 55 | Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Lanus | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | +8 | 50 | Lanus won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | +10 | 47 | Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Barracas Central | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | +4 | 47 | Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Defensa Y Justicia | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | +3 | 47 | Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Independiente | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 47 | Independiente won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Huracan | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | +2 | 46 | Huracan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | +3 | 45 | Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | -7 | 42 | San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gimnasia M. | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 41 | Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Racing Club | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -5 | 40 | Racing Club won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Sarmiento Junin | 32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | -8 | 40 | Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Tigre | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | +3 | 39 | Tigre won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Talleres Cordoba | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 39 | Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Newells Old Boys | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | -9 | 38 | Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Platense | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -7 | 36 | Platense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 25 | Banfield | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -9 | 33 | Banfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 26 | Atletico Tucuman | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -6 | 32 | Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5 |
| 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -24 | 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5 |
| 28 | Deportivo Riestra | 32 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -15 | 23 | Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5 |
| 29 | Aldosivi | 32 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -23 | 19 | Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5 |
| 30 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 32 | 3 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 14 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5 |