Liga Profesional Argentina · Review

Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura, round 15 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga Profesional Argentina result from Clausura, round 15 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 3 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 15 (30 October – 3 November 2026), is complete: 15 matches, 44 goals (2.93 a game), four home wins, six draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in nine of the 15 and both teams scored in eleven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Newells Old Boys v Union Santa Fe (1–1), which it had at 27%; the one it rated most likely was Independ. Rivadavia's win in Independ. Rivadavia v Banfield (3–1), at 52%.

After the round, Argentinos JRS lead on 65 points, two points clear of Rosario Central, with Boca Juniors third on 61. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (23), Aldosivi (19), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (14).

Match by match

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–2 Gimnasia L.P.Fri 30 Oct, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 21%, the draw 28% and Gimnasia L.P. 52%, so Gimnasia L.P. winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 1.64–1.22: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto created the better chances. The headline call, Gimnasia L.P. to win at 52%, came in. Pick published: Gimnasia L.P. +0.25 at 1.45 — won.

Huracan 0–2 TigreFri 30 Oct, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Huracan 37%, the draw 33% and Tigre 30%, with Huracan favoured; it put Tigre winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 0.96–0.79: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 62%, came in. Pick published: Tigre 0 at 2.68 — won.

Racing Club 2–1 AldosiviSat 31 Oct, 00:15

Before kick-off the model had Racing Club 51%, the draw 27% and Aldosivi 22%, so Racing Club winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 2.34–1.78: Racing Club created the better chances. The headline call, Racing Club to win at 51%, came in.

Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Rosario CentralSat 31 Oct, 00:15

Before kick-off the model had Sarmiento Junin 28%, the draw 28% and Rosario Central 44%, so Rosario Central winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.88–1.56: Rosario Central created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 55%, did not come in.

Deportivo Riestra 0–3 Talleres CordobaSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Deportivo Riestra 31%, the draw 35% and Talleres Cordoba 34%, with the draw favoured; it put Talleres Cordoba winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 0.95–0.24: Deportivo Riestra created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 66%, came in.

Velez Sarsfield 2–2 San LorenzoSat 31 Oct, 22:15

Before kick-off the model had Velez Sarsfield 45%, the draw 33% and San Lorenzo 23%, with Velez Sarsfield favoured; it put the draw at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.23–1.02: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 65%, did not come in.

Estudiantes L.P. 3–3 Instituto CordobaSun 1 Nov, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Estudiantes L.P. 40%, the draw 32% and Instituto Cordoba 28%, with Estudiantes L.P. favoured; it put the draw at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 2.05–1.16: Estudiantes L.P. created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 61%, did not come in.

Boca Juniors 1–0 River PlateSun 1 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Boca Juniors 42%, the draw 30% and River Plate 29%, so Boca Juniors winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.23–0.13: Boca Juniors created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, came in.

Belgrano Cordoba 2–2 Barracas CentralSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Before kick-off the model had Belgrano Cordoba 44%, the draw 34% and Barracas Central 22%, with Belgrano Cordoba favoured; it put the draw at 34%. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 1.61–1.20: Belgrano Cordoba created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 68%, did not come in.

Newells Old Boys 1–1 Union Santa FeSun 1 Nov, 21:30

Before kick-off the model had Newells Old Boys 40%, the draw 27% and Union Santa Fe 32%, with Newells Old Boys favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.38–1.21: Union Santa Fe created the better chances. The headline call, Newells Old Boys to win at 40%, did not come in.

Lanus 1–1 Gimnasia M.Sun 1 Nov, 23:45

Before kick-off the model had Lanus 45%, the draw 30% and Gimnasia M. 25%, with Lanus favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.20–0.73: Lanus created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 57%, did not come in.

Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 IndependienteMon 2 Nov, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Defensa Y Justicia 39%, the draw 28% and Independiente 33%, with Defensa Y Justicia favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.03–1.66: Independiente created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 55%, came in.

Platense 2–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoMon 2 Nov, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Platense 45%, the draw 29% and Central Cordoba de Santiago 27%, so Platense winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.24–0.94: Platense created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 59%, came in. Pick published: Platense -0.5 at 1.82 — won.

Atletico Tucuman 1–2 Argentinos JRSTue 3 Nov, 00:15

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Tucuman 27%, the draw 32% and Argentinos JRS 41%, so Argentinos JRS winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 1.19–0.35: Atletico Tucuman created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 59%, did not come in.

Independ. Rivadavia 3–1 BanfieldTue 3 Nov, 00:15

Before kick-off the model had Independ. Rivadavia 52%, the draw 24% and Banfield 24%, so Independ. Rivadavia winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.64–0.50: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 57%, came in.

The numbers this season

Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.17 goals a game over 480 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 38% of them and both sides scoring in 48%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.