Sarmiento Junin v Rosario Central

20th1–21st

00:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sarmiento Junin		Rosario Central
7	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	6
2	Corners	13
11	Fouls	8
4	Yellow cards	2
2	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
242	Passes	436
35%	Possession %	65%
0.88	xG	1.56

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Rosario Central 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.06 – 1.41

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sarmiento Junin	27.7%	3.61	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+5.5
Match result	Draw	28.0%	3.57	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+0.2
Match result	Rosario Central	44.3%	2.26	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.2%	1.40	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.8%	3.47	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.8%	2.23	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.2%	1.81	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.5%	4.25	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+3.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.5%	1.31	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.0%	2.00	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.0%	2.00	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+1.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rosario Central favoured against Sarmiento Junin

Our model makes Sarmiento Junin 28% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 28% and Rosario Central at 44%. The goal projection is 1.06 for Sarmiento Junin against 1.41 for Rosario Central — a clear edge to Rosario Central on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%

This season

Season records for Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central
Sarmiento Junin		Rosario Central
32	Played	35
12-4-16	W-D-L	19-9-7
1.25	Pts / game	1.89
1.13	Goals for / game	1.43
1.38	Goals against / game	0.89
47%	Over 2.5	46%
53%	BTTS	57%
25%	Clean sheets	34%
25%	Failed to score	17%
8-4-4	Home record	10-5-3
4-0-12	Away record	9-4-4
L3	Streak	W5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sarmiento Junin · Rosario Central

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.3	Shots	15.7
2.8	Shots on target	6.1
3.3	Corners	7.7
3.50	Cards	1.57
15.7	Fouls	10.9
37	Possession %	59
1.11	xG	1.80
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	10.3
5.3	Shots on target	3.4
6.5	Corners	5.1
2.17	Cards	3.29
10.7	Fouls	12.7
63	Possession %	41
1.51	xG	0.66
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sarmiento Junin	Metric	Rosario Central
1.40	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.32	Expected goals (xG)	1.47 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
10.00	Total shots	15.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.40	Corners	5.75 (better)
34.0	Possession %	57.3 (better)
239	Passes	474 (better)
	Tackles
15.60	Fouls	9.75 (better)
1.20	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sarmiento Junin wins: 0
Draws: 0
Rosario Central wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Sarmiento Junin v Rosario Central1–22026-10-31
Rosario Central v Sarmiento Junin2–12026-04-19
Sarmiento Junin v Rosario Central0–12025-10-24

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5