Liga Profesional Argentina · Review

Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura, round 14 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga Profesional Argentina result from Clausura, round 14 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 28 Oct 2026, updated 28 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura, round 14 (24–27 October 2026), is complete: twelve matches, 24 goals (2.00 a game), seven home wins, two draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the twelve and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was Aldosivi's win in Aldosivi v Belgrano Cordoba (1–0), which it had at 21%; the one it rated most likely was Instituto Cordoba's win in Instituto Cordoba v Deportivo Riestra (1–0), at 52%.

After the round, Argentinos JRS lead on 62 points, two points clear of Rosario Central, with River Plate third on 59. The bottom three are Deportivo Riestra (23), Aldosivi (19), Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (14).

Match by match

Banfield 1–1 LanusSat 24 Oct, 18:45

Before kick-off the model had Banfield 32%, the draw 30% and Lanus 38%, with Lanus favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.75–0.89: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 59%, came in.

Talleres Cordoba 1–2 Defensa Y JusticiaSat 24 Oct, 21:00

Before kick-off the model had Talleres Cordoba 35%, the draw 30% and Defensa Y Justicia 36%, so Defensa Y Justicia winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.85–0.84: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in.

San Lorenzo 0–0 Newells Old BoysSat 24 Oct, 23:15

Before kick-off the model had San Lorenzo 36%, the draw 35% and Newells Old Boys 29%, with San Lorenzo favoured; it put the draw at 35%. The likeliest score, 0-0, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.57–1.03: Newells Old Boys created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 66%, came in.

Rosario Central 2–0 HuracanSun 25 Oct, 01:30

Before kick-off the model had Rosario Central 47%, the draw 32% and Huracan 21%, so Rosario Central winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 2.15–0.52: Rosario Central created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 64%, came in.

Aldosivi 1–0 Belgrano CordobaSun 25 Oct, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Aldosivi 21%, the draw 30% and Belgrano Cordoba 48%, with Belgrano Cordoba favoured; it put Aldosivi winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.99–1.33: Belgrano Cordoba created the better chances. The headline call, Belgrano Cordoba to win at 48%, did not come in. Pick published: Aldosivi -0.5 at 3.70 — won.

Independiente 0–1 Boca JuniorsSun 25 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Independiente 29%, the draw 29% and Boca Juniors 42%, so Boca Juniors winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.56–1.62: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 58%, came in.

River Plate 1–0 Racing ClubSun 25 Oct, 22:15

Before kick-off the model had River Plate 48%, the draw 28% and Racing Club 24%, so River Plate winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.61–0.48: River Plate created the better chances. The headline call, River Plate to win at 48%, came in. Pick published: River Plate -0.75 at 1.62 — half won.

Barracas Central 2–1 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoMon 26 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Barracas Central 49%, the draw 33% and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 18%, so Barracas Central winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.30–0.74: Barracas Central created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 69%, did not come in. Pick published: Barracas Central -0.25 at 1.48 — won.

Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–5 Velez SarsfieldMon 26 Oct, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Central Cordoba de Santiago 27%, the draw 30% and Velez Sarsfield 43%, so Velez Sarsfield winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.65–3.30: Velez Sarsfield created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 56%, came in. Pick published: Central Cordoba de Santiago -0.25 at 3.00 — lost.

Union Santa Fe 3–1 Estudiantes L.P.Mon 26 Oct, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Union Santa Fe 27%, the draw 28% and Estudiantes L.P. 46%, with Estudiantes L.P. favoured; it put Union Santa Fe winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.01–0.55: Union Santa Fe created the better chances. The headline call, Estudiantes L.P. to win at 46%, did not come in. Picks published: Estudiantes L.P. at 2.80 — lost; Over 2.5 at 2.50 — won.

Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Deportivo RiestraTue 27 Oct, 00:15

Before kick-off the model had Instituto Cordoba 52%, the draw 30% and Deportivo Riestra 18%, so Instituto Cordoba winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 1-0, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.93–0.19: Instituto Cordoba created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 64%, came in. Pick published: Instituto Cordoba -0.25 at 1.65 (free pick) — won.

Argentinos JRS 1–0 Independ. RivadaviaTue 27 Oct, 22:00

Before kick-off the model had Argentinos JRS 44%, the draw 28% and Independ. Rivadavia 28%, so Argentinos JRS winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.32–0.65: Argentinos JRS created the better chances. The headline call, Argentinos JRS to win at 44%, came in. Pick published: Argentinos JRS -0.25 at 1.82 — won.

The numbers this season

Liga Profesional Argentina has averaged 2.14 goals a game over 465 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 38% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 30% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.